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> Here's the kicker: I haven't even introduced the reality that 100% conversion to electric powered vehicles will require the US to double it's power generation
by Schroedingersat 4y ago
> Here's the kicker: I haven't even introduced the reality that 100% conversion to electric powered vehicles will require the US to double it's power generation capacity. This is monumental. Conceptually, it means we have to fully duplicate our existing generation and transmission infrastructure. Frankly, I don't know how we make that happen. Please don't say solar. Once again, nuclear keeps coming back as a source that is impossible to ignore. We need so much power to support electric vehicles that we would need to build 1200 new 1 GW class nuclear power plants. This is impossible. Clearly a hybrid system will be required. Again, no, solar can't do it. It can be a part of it, but it just can't rise up to the occasion.
This is an unfathomably stupid take.
If every truck including all the small ones were a tesla semi, and every car, pickup or motorbike were a ford lightning, then this is an average load of around 200-300GW. 150-200GW is more realistic. Simply plugging in most cars most of the time and using grid aware charging would solve this, but if that's really unfathomable you can just duplicate whatever portion of the battery is used each day (<10% on average, less on some cars, more on others) and leave some of it at the charger and some at the solar array or wind turbine.
Daily gasoline demand is fairly consistent and quite elastic, it drops about 20% in winter and has minor spikes on holidays. Price signals can and regularly do control for this, but overbuilding 20% or simply taking advantage of many of the air conditioners or heaters being off is more than sufficient.
This will lower transmission strain rather than raise it, as it allows all the energy to be transferred during off peak and allows peak smoothing.
Long haul trucking will likely opt to schedule charging in blocks rather than have two redundant batteries for each truck. This is fairly easy to do as they know where they are going. Running chargers at 3MW per bay without storage wouldn't work anyway and no large multi bay truck chargers are planned without colocated storage or generation.
You're right that 1.2TW of nameplate generation would solve this easily but it is 1.2TW of solar built at <30c/W over the next 10 years, not 1.2TW of nuclear built for an average cost of $20/W (including all the failures that still need to be paid for) and rising. 500GW solar and 300GW wind would probably also be plenty.