If X is some value that best describes inherent affinity to learning, relevant to discipline you want to pursue, and Y is already amassed knowledge and skills,

If X is some value that best describes inherent affinity to learning, relevant to discipline you want to pursue, and Y is already amassed knowledge and skills, also relevant, then: Your y prior to going to college/university is a derivative of x and any prejudice, your score on the test is a derivative of x and y and prejudice, your future potential is a derivative of x and y. The interaction between all these is complicated, depends on how exactly we derive knowledge from intelligence and prejudice, scores from all above and future potential from knowledge and intelligence. It is different for different models of education, types of tests and disciplines. But in general it is most unwise to expect that 10% of any ethnic group has the same future potential, if only because tests show they are less or more educated already. In general you cannot estimate if there should be more or less of a certain group if you do not carefully examine the nature of prior disparity. And this is impossible, and even more so when the problem gets politicized. A side note - free market gets rid of the problem. We do not need a common stand on all the issues, when everyone only risks their own resources, and those who pick right, flourish.