3 ms·

On the other hand if China bombs the fabs, 1) it cripples the west's economy (and potentially its military supply chain also), 2) it ceases to make Taiwan a str

by cm2187 4y ago

On the other hand if China bombs the fabs, 1) it cripples the west's economy (and potentially its military supply chain also), 2) it ceases to make Taiwan a strategic asset to the West since there are no more fab to defend. To me it's a no brainer, particularly if they think Taiwan won't let them capture the fabs anyway (will destroy them before China controls the territory).

rocqua 4y ago
The us has poored too much of it's legitimacy into defending Taiwan to just say 'fabs gone, you are on your own'. Deterrence requires a response if lines are crossed otherwise future deterrence is much less effective. When the fabs are still on the board, the US might be a bit more vigorous, but I doubt anyone assumes fab capacity survives a Taiwan invasion.
- cm2187 4y ago
  Probably worth remembering the "red line" episode with Obama in Syria, or Biden's initial reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, which was to impose symbolic sanctions and see how it deterred Russia in a month. The US is perfectly capable of some symbolic protest if it doesn't want to be involved in a particular conflict.
  - topspin 4y ago
    > The US is perfectly capable of some symbolic protest if it doesn't want to be involved in a particular conflict. Indeed. A long history of declining open conflict with the Soviet Union in several theaters supports this.
082349872349872 4y ago
If London is the capital of Airstrip One, then Taipei and Tokyo are the capitals of Airstrips Two and Three; it's not just the fabs.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> ceases to make Taiwan a strategic asset to the West since there are no more fab to defend PRC control of Taiwan enables blockading Japan. It’s better strategy to turn Taiwan into China’s Afghanistan than abandon it because the fabs were blown. (One can also Werner von Braun Taiwan’s technical knowledge to the American homeland, thereby turning the entire endeavour into a Pyrrhic victory for Beijing.)

by cm2187 4y ago

rocqua 4y ago

The us has poored too much of it's legitimacy into defending Taiwan to just say 'fabs gone, you are on your own'. Deterrence requires a response if lines are crossed otherwise future deterrence is much less effective. When the fabs are still on the board, the US might be a bit more vigorous, but I doubt anyone assumes fab capacity survives a Taiwan invasion.

cm2187 4y ago
Probably worth remembering the "red line" episode with Obama in Syria, or Biden's initial reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, which was to impose symbolic sanctions and see how it deterred Russia in a month. The US is perfectly capable of some symbolic protest if it doesn't want to be involved in a particular conflict.
- topspin 4y ago
  > The US is perfectly capable of some symbolic protest if it doesn't want to be involved in a particular conflict. Indeed. A long history of declining open conflict with the Soviet Union in several theaters supports this.

082349872349872 4y ago

If London is the capital of Airstrip One, then Taipei and Tokyo are the capitals of Airstrips Two and Three; it's not just the fabs.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> ceases to make Taiwan a strategic asset to the West since there are no more fab to defend PRC control of Taiwan enables blockading Japan. It’s better strategy to turn Taiwan into China’s Afghanistan than abandon it because the fabs were blown. (One can also Werner von Braun Taiwan’s technical knowledge to the American homeland, thereby turning the entire endeavour into a Pyrrhic victory for Beijing.)