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Are you saying that all the tech companies are conspiring to lay off workers to cause the employment rate to drop from its near record levels so that the Fed wi

Are you saying that all the tech companies are conspiring to lay off workers to cause the employment rate to drop from its near record levels so that the Fed will panic and reduce interest rates? They're going to have to lay off a lot more people to move the needle aren't they?

thatguy0900 4y ago
Hmm, I wonder, would that be treason? It would basically be a organized attempt at crashing the US economy. Though I suppose banks have gotten away with it before.
- wmf 4y ago
  If the government's official policy is to crash the economy then helping them isn't treason.
  - thatguy0900 4y ago
    But here it would crashing it in the opposite direction, trying to influence the fed through threatening the job market
notatoad 4y ago
i'm not saying i buy this conspiracy theory, but laying off ~100k high-paid tech workers in the noisiest way possible will definitely move the needle. maybe not directly, but there's a lot of uncertainty and knock-on effect caused by all these big layoffs getting a lot of press coverage
roncesvalles 4y ago
Not GP but yes I'm saying exactly that. If you concede the following axioms: 1. All tech companies' management and investors are primarily incentivized to increase the stock price total return. 2. High interest rates are kryptonite for growth tech company stock prices and will always be the biggest dampener on stock price recovery and growth. It makes sense that company management and investors are incentivized to get rid of high interest rates. You can't manage your way out of a problem that wasn't caused by poor management. These companies were darlings of the market one week and shunned as uninvestable the next. The only thing that changed was the macro environment. You don't need actual synchronization to observe a synchronous response. If disjoint parties have the same incentives and are equally rational, they will move in a direction that appears synchronized. Of course, these companies aren't even actually disjoint - the same management consultants may well be advising multiple tech companies and coordinating a response. Big tech growth companies are an extremely rich and powerful segment of the economy. I wouldn't put it above them or beneath them (depending on how you view it morally) to not take givens as givens and manipulate their environment itself.

thatguy0900 4y ago

Hmm, I wonder, would that be treason? It would basically be a organized attempt at crashing the US economy. Though I suppose banks have gotten away with it before.

wmf 4y ago
If the government's official policy is to crash the economy then helping them isn't treason.
- thatguy0900 4y ago
  But here it would crashing it in the opposite direction, trying to influence the fed through threatening the job market

notatoad 4y ago

i'm not saying i buy this conspiracy theory, but laying off ~100k high-paid tech workers in the noisiest way possible will definitely move the needle. maybe not directly, but there's a lot of uncertainty and knock-on effect caused by all these big layoffs getting a lot of press coverage

roncesvalles 4y ago

Not GP but yes I'm saying exactly that. If you concede the following axioms: 1. All tech companies' management and investors are primarily incentivized to increase the stock price total return. 2. High interest rates are kryptonite for growth tech company stock prices and will always be the biggest dampener on stock price recovery and growth. It makes sense that company management and investors are incentivized to get rid of high interest rates. You can't manage your way out of a problem that wasn't caused by poor management. These companies were darlings of the market one week and shunned as uninvestable the next. The only thing that changed was the macro environment. You don't need actual synchronization to observe a synchronous response. If disjoint parties have the same incentives and are equally rational, they will move in a direction that appears synchronized. Of course, these companies aren't even actually disjoint - the same management consultants may well be advising multiple tech companies and coordinating a response. Big tech growth companies are an extremely rich and powerful segment of the economy. I wouldn't put it above them or beneath them (depending on how you view it morally) to not take givens as givens and manipulate their environment itself.