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They don’t have to yet? Here’s CSIS estimating the replacement time for various weapons transferred to Ukraine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?for

by xtian 4y ago

They don’t have to yet? Here’s CSIS estimating the replacement time for various weapons transferred to Ukraine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=...

ceejayoz 4y ago
C’mon, this lesson is as old as Yamamoto. Current production and “oh shit it’s a war” production are not the same. We can ramp up Javelins faster than China can amass landing craft in numbers large enough to make invasion feasible.
- xtian 4y ago
  I’m assuming that’s because of America’s deep base of industrial expertise and infrastructure as compared to that of China.
  - runnerup 4y ago
    Indeed. Americans often seem to keep re-telling themselves the narratives of WW2. "America builds lots of cheap, effective equipment faster than our opponents." Except today, we build huge, complex, expensive equipment much slower than others. China would completely swamp our manufacturing. However, they only have a small stockpile of the raw goods needed to keep up their current manufacturing levels. Even for something as basic as steel, which China's overwhelming dominance in is widely known...they are very limited by foreign imports of iron (75% of their domestic consumption of iron is provided by Australia). If China had to stop imports from Western nations, its war material production capacity would probably drop by about 75% after its 30-90 day stockpile of raw materials was used up. How much America's production suffer without good from China? Probably fairly catastrophic as well, but more especially in the long run as industrial parts break and need replacement. The resultant domestic shortages and inflation here would quickly ruin our populations appetite for any major trade war over a small foreign island.
    - xtian 4y ago
      > they are very limited by foreign imports of iron (75% of their domestic consumption of iron is provided by Australia). If China had to stop imports from Western nations, its war material production capacity would probably drop by about 75% after its 30-90 day stockpile of raw materials was used up. That’s a fair point, but US geopolitical decisions have incentivized an extremely close relationship between China and Russia, which has the third-largest iron ore reserves globally and is one of the largest producers of many other raw materials as well.
- drran 4y ago
  Yes and no. For example, production of Soviet-compatible ammunition is restored in some NATO countries. However, production rate is not high enough to have parity with RF. IMHO, Ukraine should capture Russian stocks in Transnistria to match RF stocks. Taiwan has no such option. Moreover, Taiwan sea routes can be easily interrupted with sea mines. If the war will start this year, then it's too late to bump up weapon production.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    The Ukraine war has demonstrated you don’t need parity in shells. A dozen or two HIMARS turned the tide against hundreds of artillery pieces; mobility, range, and accuracy mattered more than being able to send hundreds of shells in a general direction. While we’re comparing Ukraine and Taiwan, Taiwan has significant defensive advantages; tougher terrain, no land border, and they’ve been fortifying for decades. Even river crossings in Ukraine are fraught with peril, let alone an ocean strait.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]

by xtian 4y ago

ceejayoz 4y ago

C’mon, this lesson is as old as Yamamoto. Current production and “oh shit it’s a war” production are not the same. We can ramp up Javelins faster than China can amass landing craft in numbers large enough to make invasion feasible.

xtian 4y ago
I’m assuming that’s because of America’s deep base of industrial expertise and infrastructure as compared to that of China.
- runnerup 4y ago
  Indeed. Americans often seem to keep re-telling themselves the narratives of WW2. "America builds lots of cheap, effective equipment faster than our opponents." Except today, we build huge, complex, expensive equipment much slower than others. China would completely swamp our manufacturing. However, they only have a small stockpile of the raw goods needed to keep up their current manufacturing levels. Even for something as basic as steel, which China's overwhelming dominance in is widely known...they are very limited by foreign imports of iron (75% of their domestic consumption of iron is provided by Australia). If China had to stop imports from Western nations, its war material production capacity would probably drop by about 75% after its 30-90 day stockpile of raw materials was used up. How much America's production suffer without good from China? Probably fairly catastrophic as well, but more especially in the long run as industrial parts break and need replacement. The resultant domestic shortages and inflation here would quickly ruin our populations appetite for any major trade war over a small foreign island.
  - xtian 4y ago
    > they are very limited by foreign imports of iron (75% of their domestic consumption of iron is provided by Australia). If China had to stop imports from Western nations, its war material production capacity would probably drop by about 75% after its 30-90 day stockpile of raw materials was used up. That’s a fair point, but US geopolitical decisions have incentivized an extremely close relationship between China and Russia, which has the third-largest iron ore reserves globally and is one of the largest producers of many other raw materials as well.
drran 4y ago
Yes and no. For example, production of Soviet-compatible ammunition is restored in some NATO countries. However, production rate is not high enough to have parity with RF. IMHO, Ukraine should capture Russian stocks in Transnistria to match RF stocks. Taiwan has no such option. Moreover, Taiwan sea routes can be easily interrupted with sea mines. If the war will start this year, then it's too late to bump up weapon production.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  The Ukraine war has demonstrated you don’t need parity in shells. A dozen or two HIMARS turned the tide against hundreds of artillery pieces; mobility, range, and accuracy mattered more than being able to send hundreds of shells in a general direction. While we’re comparing Ukraine and Taiwan, Taiwan has significant defensive advantages; tougher terrain, no land border, and they’ve been fortifying for decades. Even river crossings in Ukraine are fraught with peril, let alone an ocean strait.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]