5 ms·

If an invasion is to happen it probably has to happen the next decade. Xi is getting older and China's population has now officially started to decline. I can'

If an invasion is to happen it probably has to happen the next decade. Xi is getting older and China's population has now officially started to decline. I can't see an invasion happening without massive loss of life on both sides and destroying Taiwan's value. Perhaps their plan is to conduct a massive long-term blockade. This would be more in-line China's typical actions of being aggressive in diplomacy and in stretching the boundaries of international law. If they outnumber the US in the Pacific what can the US do but watch? The US almost certainly would be unwilling to fire the first shot.

lambo4bkfast 4y ago
Given that their population is on decline, why would sacrificing many of their young population be to their benefit?
- etempleton 4y ago
  That is why I think they might be more inclined to conduct a blockade.
- bioemerl 4y ago
  You take what you can while you're powerful, it's easier to defend what you have when you're weak. Russia is in the exact same boat, they were running out of time and young people as well
- int_19h 4y ago
  It probably wouldn't be to the benefit of China as a country. But that might not matter given how much Xi has consolidated power - the question is whether it benefits him. And if he wants to end up in the history books as "great leader who completed reunification of the country" or some such, he might have to rush even if that significantly increases the costs. (There are good reasons to believe that something similar wrt Putin is the primary motivation behind the war in Ukraine, BTW.)
- esturk 4y ago
  That's more true of Taiwan's population. Taiwan's fertility rate is set to be the world's lowest.[1] So it doesn't seem like the population is Taiwan's advantage. [1] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/21/asia-pacific/social-issues-asia-pacific/taiwan-birthrate-children/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/21/asia-pacific/so...
komali2 4y ago
> reunification Gotta play pedant for a second because it's important here: using the word "reunification" doesn't make any sense when discussing the PRC's imperialist desires to invade and capture Taiwan. No matter what lense you use, the ruling government of the PRC, that being the CPC, has never ruled any territory controlled by Taiwan. There's nothing to "reunify," there's only further territory that the CPC wishes to capture and wrest control from a sovereign nation. There's danger also in the CPC weaponizing the word "China," which is why I'm careful to refer to the country as "the PRC," as the propagandists in the CPC are happy to engage in cultural imperialism to justify their military imperialism. "Taiwan is China, the people there are Chinese (華人），the people there speak Chinese (中文 / 華語）, they are of Chinese cultural background, we need to "reunify" these Chinese people." If there is an imperialist invasion, and the PRC succeeds, then they will turn their eyes on other nearby "Chinese countries " filled with "Chinese people" speaking the "national Chinese language." These are all propagandic falsehoods so there's no reason we should help them out, and those of us that are in places where it's safe to do so (outside the borders of the PRC) should communicate using the correct terms.
- rfoo 4y ago
  KMT did control the mainland before 45. How is ROC taking back mainland not "unification"? Disclaimer: My first language is Chinese.
  - komali2 4y ago
    The second reason that the CPC taking back land a population that fled the communist revolution currently occupied is still just imperialism: it's an entirely different populace with entirely different identity. Taiwanese identity as Taiwanese. An ROC takeover of PRC territory would be imperialism. Luckily nobody in Taiwan has any such ambutions (that the roc constitution claims PRC territory is a political hostage taking: xi jinping has threatened a trigger invasion if Taiwan changes its constitution, even to remove the given claim). If your first language is Mandarin but you used the unexpected and uncommon example of the ROC taking over the PRC, why do you say "Mainland" instead of "PRC" or "China?"

lambo4bkfast 4y ago

Given that their population is on decline, why would sacrificing many of their young population be to their benefit?

etempleton 4y ago
That is why I think they might be more inclined to conduct a blockade.
bioemerl 4y ago
You take what you can while you're powerful, it's easier to defend what you have when you're weak. Russia is in the exact same boat, they were running out of time and young people as well
int_19h 4y ago
It probably wouldn't be to the benefit of China as a country. But that might not matter given how much Xi has consolidated power - the question is whether it benefits him. And if he wants to end up in the history books as "great leader who completed reunification of the country" or some such, he might have to rush even if that significantly increases the costs. (There are good reasons to believe that something similar wrt Putin is the primary motivation behind the war in Ukraine, BTW.)
esturk 4y ago
That's more true of Taiwan's population. Taiwan's fertility rate is set to be the world's lowest.[1] So it doesn't seem like the population is Taiwan's advantage. [1] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/21/asia-pacific/social-issues-asia-pacific/taiwan-birthrate-children/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/21/asia-pacific/so...

komali2 4y ago

> reunification Gotta play pedant for a second because it's important here: using the word "reunification" doesn't make any sense when discussing the PRC's imperialist desires to invade and capture Taiwan. No matter what lense you use, the ruling government of the PRC, that being the CPC, has never ruled any territory controlled by Taiwan. There's nothing to "reunify," there's only further territory that the CPC wishes to capture and wrest control from a sovereign nation. There's danger also in the CPC weaponizing the word "China," which is why I'm careful to refer to the country as "the PRC," as the propagandists in the CPC are happy to engage in cultural imperialism to justify their military imperialism. "Taiwan is China, the people there are Chinese (華人），the people there speak Chinese (中文 / 華語）, they are of Chinese cultural background, we need to "reunify" these Chinese people." If there is an imperialist invasion, and the PRC succeeds, then they will turn their eyes on other nearby "Chinese countries " filled with "Chinese people" speaking the "national Chinese language." These are all propagandic falsehoods so there's no reason we should help them out, and those of us that are in places where it's safe to do so (outside the borders of the PRC) should communicate using the correct terms.

rfoo 4y ago
KMT did control the mainland before 45. How is ROC taking back mainland not "unification"? Disclaimer: My first language is Chinese.
- komali2 4y ago
  The second reason that the CPC taking back land a population that fled the communist revolution currently occupied is still just imperialism: it's an entirely different populace with entirely different identity. Taiwanese identity as Taiwanese. An ROC takeover of PRC territory would be imperialism. Luckily nobody in Taiwan has any such ambutions (that the roc constitution claims PRC territory is a political hostage taking: xi jinping has threatened a trigger invasion if Taiwan changes its constitution, even to remove the given claim). If your first language is Mandarin but you used the unexpected and uncommon example of the ROC taking over the PRC, why do you say "Mainland" instead of "PRC" or "China?"