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The problem with this approach for Russia would be that even if the risk of detection was low, the consequences of being caught would be incredibly bad for them

The problem with this approach for Russia would be that even if the risk of detection was low, the consequences of being caught would be incredibly bad for them. Russian escalation to direct attacks on non-combatant countries would be all the justification necessary for an equivalent retaliatory response from countries with superior military capability. And Russian military presence in Ukraine provides the perfect opportunity for such a response that would be a disaster for Russia without involving the kind of attack on Russian territory itself that might further escalate things. Basically, the only reason Russia is able to continue their military adventure in Ukraine at all is because the US and NATO currently view directly destroying the Russian military forces there as an escalation that could eventually lead to a nuclear war. If instead Russia takes the first step and directly attacks a NATO country, it would considered a response rather than an escalation if the US/NATO then attacked Russian forces invading Ukraine. Russia knows they have zero chance of prevailing in this scenario, and presumably are smart enough not to invite it.

acdha 4y ago
I’d also question how low the odds of detection really are: I’m sure they could field a team but they’d need money, communications, etc. and it’d need rotation on a regular basis to avoid leaving the kind of data trail which the U.S. is good at following. Toss in the non-zero chance that they have someone or something compromised and that seems relatively unlikely to yield enough benefit before something inevitably goes wrong, especially since the stress of being in the field for that long is going to affect even elite agents. Imagine how well you’d do your job going to sleep each night wondering whether it’s the one where you’ll find out if the U.S. really stopped water-boarding prisoners, not to mention the nagging question of what happens to you and your family if the mission goes sour. This seems like the kind of thing you could maybe do once, right as you invade, but not on an ongoing basis.
rektide 4y ago
Also, if the US really did start having to deal with the absurd horseshit Russia has been inflicting on Ukraine via missiles, we'd probably be much more sympathetic to Ukraine. As far as I know, this is one of the first major armed conflicts where the power grid has been sucha focused target. It's beyond my imagining to think how Ukraine has been coping with this. The article points out how slow & plodding the supply chain is for this kind kf equipment. That's an awful fact of today's economy. America in particular I'd expect to be extra plodding in response.
wineterror 4y ago
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acdha 4y ago

I’d also question how low the odds of detection really are: I’m sure they could field a team but they’d need money, communications, etc. and it’d need rotation on a regular basis to avoid leaving the kind of data trail which the U.S. is good at following. Toss in the non-zero chance that they have someone or something compromised and that seems relatively unlikely to yield enough benefit before something inevitably goes wrong, especially since the stress of being in the field for that long is going to affect even elite agents. Imagine how well you’d do your job going to sleep each night wondering whether it’s the one where you’ll find out if the U.S. really stopped water-boarding prisoners, not to mention the nagging question of what happens to you and your family if the mission goes sour. This seems like the kind of thing you could maybe do once, right as you invade, but not on an ongoing basis.

rektide 4y ago

Also, if the US really did start having to deal with the absurd horseshit Russia has been inflicting on Ukraine via missiles, we'd probably be much more sympathetic to Ukraine. As far as I know, this is one of the first major armed conflicts where the power grid has been sucha focused target. It's beyond my imagining to think how Ukraine has been coping with this. The article points out how slow & plodding the supply chain is for this kind kf equipment. That's an awful fact of today's economy. America in particular I'd expect to be extra plodding in response.

wineterror 4y ago

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