6 ms·

Russia invading Ukraine is a kind of template for China invading Taiwan.

by ant6n 4y ago

khuey 4y ago
To the extent that it is it's either a template for what not to do or a very dire warning not to pull the trigger.
ceejayoz 4y ago
The lesson they’ve hopefully gotten is “it’s harder than it looks”. The Chinese would have to do it amphibiously, too. If I were Taiwan, I’d be buying as many Javelins and Stingers and whatnot the world can manufacture.
- dh2022 4y ago
  They bought a whole bunch of these and other things... Too bad for the Taiwanese that all this kit is going now to Ukraine... Taiwanese weaponry backlog is growing month by month [1]. Another way China benefits from Ukraine-Russian war. https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-06-Senator-Hawley-Letter-to-Blinken.pdf https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/20...
  - katmannthree 4y ago
    Ahh yes, and that letter is worth taking very seriously because Josh Hawley definitely has no possible ulterior motives regarding limiting aid to Ukraine as a way to help a certain group of people he runs with.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    A false dichotomy from an insurrectionist (and the only Senator to oppose 95-1 both Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO). The American military-industrial complex is entirely capable of ramping up to meet production needs for both, especially in the time China would need to build up a D-Day style amphibious invasion capacity.
    - xtian 4y ago
      Why haven’t they done so yet? "Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can’t Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become ‘Challenging’" https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/ https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-wa...
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        Because they don't have to, yet. It's an "if", and it's a big "if". IMO, the US should publicly commit to a solid order for a very large number of the weapon systems Taiwan and Ukraine would likely need in an extended double conflict. We saw in COVID (with things like tests) that "we need a billion of X, but we'll dribble out the order in much smaller quantities" tends to make industry leery of evaporating demand after making big capital investments.
        xtian 4y ago
        They don’t have to yet? Here’s CSIS estimating the replacement time for various weapons transferred to Ukraine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=...
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        C’mon, this lesson is as old as Yamamoto. Current production and “oh shit it’s a war” production are not the same. We can ramp up Javelins faster than China can amass landing craft in numbers large enough to make invasion feasible.
        xtian 4y ago
        I’m assuming that’s because of America’s deep base of industrial expertise and infrastructure as compared to that of China.
- andrewflnr 4y ago
  That wouldn't be a great lesson. Russia was obviously, calamitously incompetent in their invasion. It won't be hard for China to do better. Also anti-tank weapons are an odd choice for a conflict that's likely to be mostly naval.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > Russia was obviously, calamitously incompetent in their invasion. Sure, but China's not immune to the corruption that's helped make the Russian a much less effective force than it was supposed to be on paper. Some of the lessons remain important for a well-managed force; the effective use of drones and man-portable missiles has clear implications for every military. > Also anti-tank weapons are an odd choice for a conflict that's likely to be mostly naval. Javelins can be used on amphibious landing craft, and any successful amphibious assault would eventually land armored vehicles; Stingers would be useful against the almost certain paratroops. A building-to-building battle for cities in Taiwan would be absolutely brutal; I don't think China wants that.
ssnistfajen 4y ago
Yes, the kind of template for what NOT to do. Do you think HP-Compaq merger is a "kind of template" for how to properly execute an acquisition/merger?

Russia invading Ukraine is a kind of template for China invading Taiwan.

by ant6n 4y ago

Russia invading Ukraine is a kind of template for China invading Taiwan.

khuey 4y ago

To the extent that it is it's either a template for what not to do or a very dire warning not to pull the trigger.

ceejayoz 4y ago

The lesson they’ve hopefully gotten is “it’s harder than it looks”. The Chinese would have to do it amphibiously, too. If I were Taiwan, I’d be buying as many Javelins and Stingers and whatnot the world can manufacture.

dh2022 4y ago
They bought a whole bunch of these and other things... Too bad for the Taiwanese that all this kit is going now to Ukraine... Taiwanese weaponry backlog is growing month by month [1]. Another way China benefits from Ukraine-Russian war. https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-06-Senator-Hawley-Letter-to-Blinken.pdf https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/20...
- katmannthree 4y ago
  Ahh yes, and that letter is worth taking very seriously because Josh Hawley definitely has no possible ulterior motives regarding limiting aid to Ukraine as a way to help a certain group of people he runs with.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  A false dichotomy from an insurrectionist (and the only Senator to oppose 95-1 both Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO). The American military-industrial complex is entirely capable of ramping up to meet production needs for both, especially in the time China would need to build up a D-Day style amphibious invasion capacity.
  - xtian 4y ago
    Why haven’t they done so yet? "Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can’t Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become ‘Challenging’" https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/ https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-wa...
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      Because they don't have to, yet. It's an "if", and it's a big "if". IMO, the US should publicly commit to a solid order for a very large number of the weapon systems Taiwan and Ukraine would likely need in an extended double conflict. We saw in COVID (with things like tests) that "we need a billion of X, but we'll dribble out the order in much smaller quantities" tends to make industry leery of evaporating demand after making big capital investments.
      - xtian 4y ago
        They don’t have to yet? Here’s CSIS estimating the replacement time for various weapons transferred to Ukraine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmc_WJsWAAUP8GL?format=jpg&name=...
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        C’mon, this lesson is as old as Yamamoto. Current production and “oh shit it’s a war” production are not the same. We can ramp up Javelins faster than China can amass landing craft in numbers large enough to make invasion feasible.
        xtian 4y ago
        I’m assuming that’s because of America’s deep base of industrial expertise and infrastructure as compared to that of China.
andrewflnr 4y ago
That wouldn't be a great lesson. Russia was obviously, calamitously incompetent in their invasion. It won't be hard for China to do better. Also anti-tank weapons are an odd choice for a conflict that's likely to be mostly naval.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > Russia was obviously, calamitously incompetent in their invasion. Sure, but China's not immune to the corruption that's helped make the Russian a much less effective force than it was supposed to be on paper. Some of the lessons remain important for a well-managed force; the effective use of drones and man-portable missiles has clear implications for every military. > Also anti-tank weapons are an odd choice for a conflict that's likely to be mostly naval. Javelins can be used on amphibious landing craft, and any successful amphibious assault would eventually land armored vehicles; Stingers would be useful against the almost certain paratroops. A building-to-building battle for cities in Taiwan would be absolutely brutal; I don't think China wants that.

ssnistfajen 4y ago

Yes, the kind of template for what NOT to do. Do you think HP-Compaq merger is a "kind of template" for how to properly execute an acquisition/merger?