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In exactly what way is this conflict actually heating up lately? I've certainly noticed the increase in news coverage, but don't know of, e.g. military actions

In exactly what way is this conflict actually heating up lately? I've certainly noticed the increase in news coverage, but don't know of, e.g. military actions by CN/US that indicate conflict coming closer.

MrOwnPut 4y ago
January 2nd, Chına executed their second military combat drill around the island with at least 57 aircraft, 28 flew into Taıwan's airspace. 2 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers flew south of the island during this combat drill. The last military combat drill was in late December. They have been ramping up in aggression.
- ummonk 4y ago
  They didn’t enter Taiwan’s airspace. They entered its self-proclaimed air defense identification zone, which extends well beyond its own airspace and even into mainland China. China’s recent actions have been increasingly provocative, but it’s erroneous to state that there were incursions into Taiwanese airspace.
  - MrOwnPut 4y ago
    The 28 aircraft crossed the Taıwan Straıt median line, knowing it's provocation. I was answering GPs question of why the news cycles. It's solely because of the aggression and the military drills around the island by Chına.
    - pokepim 4y ago
      [dead]
    - khuey 4y ago
      You stated they "flew into Taiwan's airspace" which didn't actually happen.
      - MrOwnPut 4y ago
        It was wording from a news outlet, but I clarified they crossed the Taıwan Strait median line. The point of my post still stands, wouldn't you agree?
        RobRivera 4y ago
        Is it really so difficult to admit that you published an errata?
        MrOwnPut 4y ago
        I believe I just did 2 comments above, before you joined in, why the hostility? Is it really so difficult to focus on the actual aggression against a sovereign country and instead squabble over exactly where they were practicing to invade the country. The point is they are practicing to invade the country, is it not?
        mardifoufs 4y ago
        How is it an aggression if they didn't actually violate anything? Flying close to the edge of a border isn't aggression, it's almost common practice. Going by your standard, the US has violated pretty much every single country on earth. And no, that's not whataboutism. Precedent is extremely important in international relations and laws.
        MrOwnPut 4y ago
        Oh, so you're disputing the reason of what the military drill is for? https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-invade-taiwan-promise-force-1752215 https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-in... It's no secret what they want to do with Taıwan and what these exercises are for. Only one country is poking at the other and won't rule out an invasion, no matter how you try to spin it.
ant6n 4y ago
Russia invading Ukraine is a kind of template for China invading Taiwan.
- khuey 4y ago
  To the extent that it is it's either a template for what not to do or a very dire warning not to pull the trigger.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  The lesson they’ve hopefully gotten is “it’s harder than it looks”. The Chinese would have to do it amphibiously, too. If I were Taiwan, I’d be buying as many Javelins and Stingers and whatnot the world can manufacture.
  - dh2022 4y ago
    They bought a whole bunch of these and other things... Too bad for the Taiwanese that all this kit is going now to Ukraine... Taiwanese weaponry backlog is growing month by month [1]. Another way China benefits from Ukraine-Russian war. https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-06-Senator-Hawley-Letter-to-Blinken.pdf https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/20...
    - katmannthree 4y ago
      Ahh yes, and that letter is worth taking very seriously because Josh Hawley definitely has no possible ulterior motives regarding limiting aid to Ukraine as a way to help a certain group of people he runs with.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      A false dichotomy from an insurrectionist (and the only Senator to oppose 95-1 both Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO). The American military-industrial complex is entirely capable of ramping up to meet production needs for both, especially in the time China would need to build up a D-Day style amphibious invasion capacity.
dragontamer 4y ago
China has mass produced so many warships, they now outnumber the US Navy. I don't expect that China will make a move yet though, they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles. So the nature is that China is preparing for a fight. Hopefully it's just bluster.
- topspin 4y ago
  > they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles. The Chinese need a full compliment of carriers to enforce a total blockade of the island and effective hypersonic anti-ship missiles to fend off US capital ships. The launch platform (H-6N) for the hypersonics is already in their arsenal. When the carriers and missiles are available it's all over for Taiwan. This is less than 4-5 years out as China is urgently working on both. Meanwhile the US is developing LRASM, Rapid Dragon and others specifically for this scenario. The missing piece is a really long range anti-aircraft missile to threaten the H-6 fleet without exposing nuclear powered US capital ships to Chinese weapons. The F-14 would have been an ideal platform for this. Ultimately though, unless the US is willing to go all-out kinetic with China over Taiwan there is no hope. It's a small island 100 miles off the coast of an enormous, powerful, wealthy enemy with an epic chip on its shoulder, and its key ally is on the wrong side of the Pacific. Smart money can see this so advanced fabs are popping up all over the West.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    No one knows if those Hypersonics actually can kill a carrier though. That's what I mean by "bluster". China is publicly saying they can, but... what if they just miss the carriers in practice? What if USA can actually shoot them down and protect our carriers? It very well could be that China is just pretending that their missiles work to extract concessions during peacetime, and never actually plans to go to war. Etc. etc. There's too many futures, and the particular knowledge (ie: How good the missiles really are) is going to be top secret on both sides. No reason for China to want to let USA know how good the missiles are... no reason for USA to want to let China know how good the AEGIS Missile shield is.
j16sdiz 4y ago
Military actions by CN around this area have been increased in the past few months. Event in Russia/Ukraine make us realize war can be started anytime.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  Events in Ukraine made us realize that, when one side makes a bunch of threats, and then does a huge "drill" on the borders of the other side, sometimes that's the prelude to an invasion.
avidiax 4y ago
President Xi has more reasons to invade Taiwan now than usual. He is getting older, and Taiwan reunification has been on his wish-list for a long time, recently reaffirmed and suggesting force is on the table[1]. The U.S. is currently managing a situation in Ukraine and economic problems, and China is currently in an acute COVID crisis which sparked mass protests, and a less acute economic crisis (reduced GDP growth). A war would be a great distraction for the local population. The inevitable sanctions and disruption of chip production would excuse poor GDP growth. To top it off, a "glorious victory" (Pyrrhic victory) is pretty likely. The U.S. has global reach, but it's still not as logistically feasible for the U.S. to fight from staged forces in Japan and the Philippines as it is for China to fight from their home territory. [1] https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-invade-taiwan-promise-force-1752215 https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-in...
- bamboozled 4y ago
  It's a big call though, to risk starting a war and pissing off the population if they're already not to happy about Covid19's handling. In contrast, Hitler made Germans feel like they were heading for a better place so he garnered support, Xi though, doesn't seem as charismatic and popular. So it's going to be a much harder sell to start an all out hot war over something that means basically nothing to 99% of the population. Also invading a country is one thing, hanging onto it is another, Syria, Afganistan, Vietnam etc for example. China isn't exactly going to make friends taking the country by force.
  - throwaway290 4y ago
    Population's attitude has been prepared by the party well in advance. Lots of people are pissed off because Taiwan is not invaded yet, not the other way around.
    - another_story 4y ago
      Are they really? A small but vocal (and sometimes state supported) group of people are actually mad. Another group will mindlessly mouth such sentiment, but the majority seem not to care and just want to get on with their lives.
arp242 4y ago
Well, stuff like: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/10/china-tells-us-it-will-not-hesitate-to-start-war-over-taiwan https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/10/china-tells-us-it-w... And never mind the whole "Taiwanese are not genetically pure Chinese übermenschen so we must find a final solution for them" https://twitter.com/pybaubry/status/1447466780717289476 https://twitter.com/pybaubry/status/1447466780717289476 And after Pelosi's visit a few months back things have only heated up. For a long time China was relatively diplomatic about Taiwan. They claimed it was part of China, but they also didn't go out of their way to say "we will take it by any means necessary". Who knows where this will end ... maybe it'll all be very anti-climatic, or maybe not ... But it's certainly a bit hotter than it was before.
- 8note 4y ago
  How would you compare that against the US wanting to take proper control over Hawaii by any means necessary? Puerto Rico? Cuba? For a long time, the US has been content treating Hawaii as a tourist destination and military base, but should the federal government laws apply there?
  - arp242 4y ago
    I don't see how any of that is relevant here. Many countries have committed crimes and injustices throughout history, and in some cases continue to commit crimes and injustices. That doesn't say anything meaningful about China and Taiwan.
  - stale2002 4y ago
    Well what do the people of Hawaii think? I propose someone do a survey of people who were born in, or live in Hawaii, and see if they want to be a part of the US. As for Taiwan, we already know that they don't want to be "unified" with the mainland.
    - sfusato 4y ago
      Careful there. You can only propose such surveys when it serves the narrative and in certain places and not all, see southern/eastern regions of Ukraine.
aikinai 4y ago
Also Xi’s consolidation of power and his stated goals, which makes earlier aggression much more likely over some other leader or more distributed power.
refurb 4y ago
This is the problem with news coverage - reporters decide what’s news. It’s heated up dramatically with Xi stating a few months ago that “China will take back Taiwan in the next 10 years”. You can get much more certain than literally one of the actors verbally stating it’s a goal.
- beebeepka 4y ago
  No, the people behind the curtain decide what is news. The reporters do what they're told
ssnistfajen 4y ago
They are largely posturing, even including the arms race and airspace incursions. The risk of ruin of a direct confrontation of th PRC and the USA in a hot war is infinite because the USA reserves the ability to launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes which the PRC would retaliate. Taiwan buying US equipment yields $$$ for the US. TSMC building fabs in Arizona yields $$$ for TSMC and the US. China selling manufactured goods to Taiwan and the US yields $$$ for China. Media/influencers writing panic-bait to hype up engagement metrics yields $$$ for content creators and shareholders. $$$ is the only thing that matters for every entity involved in this situation.

MrOwnPut 4y ago

January 2nd, Chına executed their second military combat drill around the island with at least 57 aircraft, 28 flew into Taıwan's airspace. 2 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers flew south of the island during this combat drill. The last military combat drill was in late December. They have been ramping up in aggression.

ummonk 4y ago
They didn’t enter Taiwan’s airspace. They entered its self-proclaimed air defense identification zone, which extends well beyond its own airspace and even into mainland China. China’s recent actions have been increasingly provocative, but it’s erroneous to state that there were incursions into Taiwanese airspace.
- MrOwnPut 4y ago
  The 28 aircraft crossed the Taıwan Straıt median line, knowing it's provocation. I was answering GPs question of why the news cycles. It's solely because of the aggression and the military drills around the island by Chına.
  - pokepim 4y ago
    [dead]
  - khuey 4y ago
    You stated they "flew into Taiwan's airspace" which didn't actually happen.
    - MrOwnPut 4y ago
      It was wording from a news outlet, but I clarified they crossed the Taıwan Strait median line. The point of my post still stands, wouldn't you agree?
      - RobRivera 4y ago
        Is it really so difficult to admit that you published an errata?
        MrOwnPut 4y ago
        I believe I just did 2 comments above, before you joined in, why the hostility? Is it really so difficult to focus on the actual aggression against a sovereign country and instead squabble over exactly where they were practicing to invade the country. The point is they are practicing to invade the country, is it not?
        mardifoufs 4y ago
        How is it an aggression if they didn't actually violate anything? Flying close to the edge of a border isn't aggression, it's almost common practice. Going by your standard, the US has violated pretty much every single country on earth. And no, that's not whataboutism. Precedent is extremely important in international relations and laws.
        MrOwnPut 4y ago
        Oh, so you're disputing the reason of what the military drill is for? https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-invade-taiwan-promise-force-1752215 https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-in... It's no secret what they want to do with Taıwan and what these exercises are for. Only one country is poking at the other and won't rule out an invasion, no matter how you try to spin it.

ant6n 4y ago

Russia invading Ukraine is a kind of template for China invading Taiwan.

khuey 4y ago
To the extent that it is it's either a template for what not to do or a very dire warning not to pull the trigger.
ceejayoz 4y ago
The lesson they’ve hopefully gotten is “it’s harder than it looks”. The Chinese would have to do it amphibiously, too. If I were Taiwan, I’d be buying as many Javelins and Stingers and whatnot the world can manufacture.
- dh2022 4y ago
  They bought a whole bunch of these and other things... Too bad for the Taiwanese that all this kit is going now to Ukraine... Taiwanese weaponry backlog is growing month by month [1]. Another way China benefits from Ukraine-Russian war. https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-06-Senator-Hawley-Letter-to-Blinken.pdf https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/20...
  - katmannthree 4y ago
    Ahh yes, and that letter is worth taking very seriously because Josh Hawley definitely has no possible ulterior motives regarding limiting aid to Ukraine as a way to help a certain group of people he runs with.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    A false dichotomy from an insurrectionist (and the only Senator to oppose 95-1 both Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO). The American military-industrial complex is entirely capable of ramping up to meet production needs for both, especially in the time China would need to build up a D-Day style amphibious invasion capacity.

dragontamer 4y ago

China has mass produced so many warships, they now outnumber the US Navy. I don't expect that China will make a move yet though, they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles. So the nature is that China is preparing for a fight. Hopefully it's just bluster.

topspin 4y ago
> they also are building capital ships, like Aircraft Carriers, and also producing ship killing Hypersonic Missiles. The Chinese need a full compliment of carriers to enforce a total blockade of the island and effective hypersonic anti-ship missiles to fend off US capital ships. The launch platform (H-6N) for the hypersonics is already in their arsenal. When the carriers and missiles are available it's all over for Taiwan. This is less than 4-5 years out as China is urgently working on both. Meanwhile the US is developing LRASM, Rapid Dragon and others specifically for this scenario. The missing piece is a really long range anti-aircraft missile to threaten the H-6 fleet without exposing nuclear powered US capital ships to Chinese weapons. The F-14 would have been an ideal platform for this. Ultimately though, unless the US is willing to go all-out kinetic with China over Taiwan there is no hope. It's a small island 100 miles off the coast of an enormous, powerful, wealthy enemy with an epic chip on its shoulder, and its key ally is on the wrong side of the Pacific. Smart money can see this so advanced fabs are popping up all over the West.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  No one knows if those Hypersonics actually can kill a carrier though. That's what I mean by "bluster". China is publicly saying they can, but... what if they just miss the carriers in practice? What if USA can actually shoot them down and protect our carriers? It very well could be that China is just pretending that their missiles work to extract concessions during peacetime, and never actually plans to go to war. Etc. etc. There's too many futures, and the particular knowledge (ie: How good the missiles really are) is going to be top secret on both sides. No reason for China to want to let USA know how good the missiles are... no reason for USA to want to let China know how good the AEGIS Missile shield is.

j16sdiz 4y ago

Military actions by CN around this area have been increased in the past few months. Event in Russia/Ukraine make us realize war can be started anytime.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Events in Ukraine made us realize that, when one side makes a bunch of threats, and then does a huge "drill" on the borders of the other side, sometimes that's the prelude to an invasion.

avidiax 4y ago

President Xi has more reasons to invade Taiwan now than usual. He is getting older, and Taiwan reunification has been on his wish-list for a long time, recently reaffirmed and suggesting force is on the table[1]. The U.S. is currently managing a situation in Ukraine and economic problems, and China is currently in an acute COVID crisis which sparked mass protests, and a less acute economic crisis (reduced GDP growth). A war would be a great distraction for the local population. The inevitable sanctions and disruption of chip production would excuse poor GDP growth. To top it off, a "glorious victory" (Pyrrhic victory) is pretty likely. The U.S. has global reach, but it's still not as logistically feasible for the U.S. to fight from staged forces in Japan and the Philippines as it is for China to fight from their home territory. [1] https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-invade-taiwan-promise-force-1752215 https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-speech-suggests-china-in...

bamboozled 4y ago
It's a big call though, to risk starting a war and pissing off the population if they're already not to happy about Covid19's handling. In contrast, Hitler made Germans feel like they were heading for a better place so he garnered support, Xi though, doesn't seem as charismatic and popular. So it's going to be a much harder sell to start an all out hot war over something that means basically nothing to 99% of the population. Also invading a country is one thing, hanging onto it is another, Syria, Afganistan, Vietnam etc for example. China isn't exactly going to make friends taking the country by force.
- throwaway290 4y ago
  Population's attitude has been prepared by the party well in advance. Lots of people are pissed off because Taiwan is not invaded yet, not the other way around.
  - another_story 4y ago
    Are they really? A small but vocal (and sometimes state supported) group of people are actually mad. Another group will mindlessly mouth such sentiment, but the majority seem not to care and just want to get on with their lives.

arp242 4y ago

Well, stuff like: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/10/china-tells-us-it-will-not-hesitate-to-start-war-over-taiwan https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/10/china-tells-us-it-w... And never mind the whole "Taiwanese are not genetically pure Chinese übermenschen so we must find a final solution for them" https://twitter.com/pybaubry/status/1447466780717289476 https://twitter.com/pybaubry/status/1447466780717289476 And after Pelosi's visit a few months back things have only heated up. For a long time China was relatively diplomatic about Taiwan. They claimed it was part of China, but they also didn't go out of their way to say "we will take it by any means necessary". Who knows where this will end ... maybe it'll all be very anti-climatic, or maybe not ... But it's certainly a bit hotter than it was before.

8note 4y ago
How would you compare that against the US wanting to take proper control over Hawaii by any means necessary? Puerto Rico? Cuba? For a long time, the US has been content treating Hawaii as a tourist destination and military base, but should the federal government laws apply there?
- arp242 4y ago
  I don't see how any of that is relevant here. Many countries have committed crimes and injustices throughout history, and in some cases continue to commit crimes and injustices. That doesn't say anything meaningful about China and Taiwan.
- stale2002 4y ago
  Well what do the people of Hawaii think? I propose someone do a survey of people who were born in, or live in Hawaii, and see if they want to be a part of the US. As for Taiwan, we already know that they don't want to be "unified" with the mainland.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    Careful there. You can only propose such surveys when it serves the narrative and in certain places and not all, see southern/eastern regions of Ukraine.

aikinai 4y ago

Also Xi’s consolidation of power and his stated goals, which makes earlier aggression much more likely over some other leader or more distributed power.

refurb 4y ago

This is the problem with news coverage - reporters decide what’s news. It’s heated up dramatically with Xi stating a few months ago that “China will take back Taiwan in the next 10 years”. You can get much more certain than literally one of the actors verbally stating it’s a goal.

beebeepka 4y ago
No, the people behind the curtain decide what is news. The reporters do what they're told

ssnistfajen 4y ago

They are largely posturing, even including the arms race and airspace incursions. The risk of ruin of a direct confrontation of th PRC and the USA in a hot war is infinite because the USA reserves the ability to launch pre-emptive nuclear strikes which the PRC would retaliate. Taiwan buying US equipment yields $$$ for the US. TSMC building fabs in Arizona yields $$$ for TSMC and the US. China selling manufactured goods to Taiwan and the US yields $$$ for China. Media/influencers writing panic-bait to hype up engagement metrics yields $$$ for content creators and shareholders. $$$ is the only thing that matters for every entity involved in this situation.