2 ms·
Note that "total housing units / working age population" is the wrong metric. Many baby boomers are choosing to stay in their houses long after they have retir
by nostrademons 4y ago
Note that "total housing units / working age population" is the wrong metric. Many baby boomers are choosing to stay in their houses long after they have retired, and retirement lasts longer because life expectancy is now ~15 years past retirement (more in many of the blue states that are the most housing constrained).
The proper metric would be "population entering peak home-buying & child-rearing years / (deaths + population entering senior homes + new home construction)". I'm pretty sure that metric is pretty bleak just looking at the U.S. population pyramid:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/
- adam_arthur 4y agoI gave the "housing units to households" metric, which is the one that matters most. It's 1.1 housing unit to 1 household, same as it was in 2001. You can corroborate with FRED data for total households vs total housing units Demographics were favorable for demand for the past few years due to millenials reaching homebuying age, but they quickly shift against demand over the next decade due to large elderly population passing on and lower population growth. Not even considering that homebuilding is at an all time high https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTNSA