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> Imo, most people crying out for lower interest rates are likely swimming naked and just want the tide to come back in. Is it possible that zero interest rate
by vba616 4y ago
> Imo, most people crying out for lower interest rates are likely swimming naked and just want the tide to come back in.
Is it possible that zero interest rates are bad and excessively high rates are bad at the same time?
The long term inflation goal in the US, I believe, is 2%. And long term interest rates here that are determined by the market are higher, but not as high as policymakers have set short term rates to.
Would it not make sense to set rates somewhere in that window (roughly 2-4%) and stop messing with them? For other countries, scale rates accordingly.
Metaphorically, I feel like the US federal reserve was driving a car with the gas pedal to the floor and it didn't respond for a while, so they kept going until they suddenly found themselves going 100 mph, and now they are determined to keep on the brakes as hard as they can until they are 100% motionless. This is not a good way to drive in traffic, even if you do survive it.
There is an alleged tendency of almost everybody to justify their job by looking busy even if what they are doing is worse than doing nothing. And that's what I think of when I think of central banks in my adult lifetime. Along with being a passenger in a car where the driver is on and off the gas and brakes constantly to the point of nausea.
Inverted yield curves worry people even if they can't agree on how linked they are to recessions. So...why not just not invert them? I believe that markets have to be regulated, but they also should be listened to.
- raincom 4y agoHigh interest rates are product of high inflation. That's why 2% inflation target means 2 percent interest rate target. Nominal interest rate = inflation rate + real interest rate.
- vba616 4y agoAre you agreeing with something I wrote, or disagreeing, or what? I wonder if HN has banned using ChatGPT to comment or is considering it.
- __derek__ 4y ago> Would it not make sense to set rates somewhere in that window (roughly 2-4%) and stop messing with them? For other countries, scale rates accordingly. That alone wouldn't work because inflation is affected by factors beyond interest rates, but this is basically a part of Modern Monetary Theory: set short-term interest rates at a fixed price, then use other levers to push inflation back to target. IMO, a more compelling alternative to the current system is Nominal GDP Targeting.[1][2] [1]: https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/case-nominal-gdp-targeting https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/case-nomin... [2]: https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/nominal-gdp-targeting-and-taylor-rule-even-playing-field https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/nominal-gdp...