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Solar energy in Europe will be 10 times cheaper than gas by 2030 – here’s how

7 points by fagnerbrack 4y ago

amalgamated_inc 4y ago
First you have to make it to 2030
credit_guy 4y ago
Solar energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. But at some point those who want to build a new solar plant will start noticing this phenomenon: when the sun shines, the price of electricity will be very low, because of all the other solar generation. Might even be negative. Negative prices can't help you recoup your capital investment. Lots of people are giddy for the moment we'll have widespread negative electricity prices because of all the cheap solar being built. You know who's not giddy about that? Those who are supposed to install the new solar.
- more_corn 4y ago
  When the sun shines people also run their air conditioning. We get a huge spike in power use on sunny days. I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m just saying we’re a long way from that problem. And when we get there grid-scale batteries are probably the way to go. Australia has experienced phenomenal improvements in the places where they deployed battery systems. It’s actually useful everywhere since you can buy power at the usage trough when it’s cheap and sell power at the peak when it’s expensive. Large-scale batteries pay for themselves in less than five years. Simply by buying low and selling high. Battery storage also allows you to generate steady state rather than ramping up and down production as the grid demands go up and down. That’s more cost-effective if you’re using renewables or coal or anything else.
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    > Simply by buying low and selling high. Well put. Now, the trick is, you need to buy low and sell high quite often. If you do that once a year, no way you recoup your capital investment in five years. Or 20. That's what a lot of people don't understand. Batteries can store electricity from day to night, but not from summer to winter. Nothing is cheap enough to store electricity from summer to winter. And nothing will ever be. Including pumped hydro, or hydrogen storage. Nothing can be economical by just collecting one dollar per kWh once a year (and generally the difference between summer and winter is well below $1/kWh). The trick is to buy low, sell high, on a daily basis, but do it in different places. Like make hydrogen in Australia and sell it to Japan and China. This is a golden opportunity for Australia to become the Saudi Arabia of solar. Except, of course, Saudi Arabia can also become the new Saudi Arabia of solar, if they are smart.

7 points by fagnerbrack 4y ago

First you have to make it to 2030

Solar energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. But at some point those who want to build a new solar plant will start noticing this phenomenon: when the sun shines, the price of electricity will be very low, because of all the other solar generation. Might even be negative. Negative prices can't help you recoup your capital investment. Lots of people are giddy for the moment we'll have widespread negative electricity prices because of all the cheap solar being built. You know who's not giddy about that? Those who are supposed to install the new solar.

more_corn 4y ago
When the sun shines people also run their air conditioning. We get a huge spike in power use on sunny days. I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m just saying we’re a long way from that problem. And when we get there grid-scale batteries are probably the way to go. Australia has experienced phenomenal improvements in the places where they deployed battery systems. It’s actually useful everywhere since you can buy power at the usage trough when it’s cheap and sell power at the peak when it’s expensive. Large-scale batteries pay for themselves in less than five years. Simply by buying low and selling high. Battery storage also allows you to generate steady state rather than ramping up and down production as the grid demands go up and down. That’s more cost-effective if you’re using renewables or coal or anything else.
- credit_guy 4y ago
  > Simply by buying low and selling high. Well put. Now, the trick is, you need to buy low and sell high quite often. If you do that once a year, no way you recoup your capital investment in five years. Or 20. That's what a lot of people don't understand. Batteries can store electricity from day to night, but not from summer to winter. Nothing is cheap enough to store electricity from summer to winter. And nothing will ever be. Including pumped hydro, or hydrogen storage. Nothing can be economical by just collecting one dollar per kWh once a year (and generally the difference between summer and winter is well below $1/kWh). The trick is to buy low, sell high, on a daily basis, but do it in different places. Like make hydrogen in Australia and sell it to Japan and China. This is a golden opportunity for Australia to become the Saudi Arabia of solar. Except, of course, Saudi Arabia can also become the new Saudi Arabia of solar, if they are smart.