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Regarding the first sentence note that trade-adjusted emissions for the US have still fallen - though offshored emissions fell most around the time of the finan
by dan-robertson 4y ago
Regarding the first sentence note that trade-adjusted emissions for the US have still fallen - though offshored emissions fell most around the time of the financial crises. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/production-vs-consumption-co2-emissions https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/production-vs-consumption... (enter United States into the ‘change country’ box)
I don’t really have much of a response to the rest of your comment. I can’t tell if the foundation of the argument in your comment above is on that false claim or not.
I don’t think it’s true that a charismatic leader will cause people to vote for to make their lives worse in the short term with a truthful promise of making their lives worse in the short term. If people vote for such a leader, they will vote them out when their lives get worse. I don’t really understand why I should be convinced that the way forward is for some supreme charisma to appear (from where?) and persuade the World’s people to suffer hardship for the greater good. I am particularly unconvinced because I think that kind of suffering is unnecessary and not particularly helpful for reducing GHG emissions or climate change.
I continue to not think it’s an emergency for the same reason that your mortality is not an emergency when you are in your mid fifties.
I roughly expect: government-support / industrial policy causes low-carbon power generation to grow a bit faster than predictions, and gets cheaper to the point that fossil fuel power generation becomes uneconomical apart from leaker plants which take longer to die out; new cars to become mostly-electric sooner than predicted because most car companies get good enough at them and the electric cars are just better cars (potentially hybrid cars should be preferred as a policy if cars are limited by battery production: most miles are short journeys so would still be all on the smaller batteries); global warming / climate change to continue increasing for a while; maybe some improvements to carbon capture but I’m a bit doubtful it would be done much unless power gets a lot cheaper; much migration and ensuing strife due to the uneven consequences of climate change; some powerful country that cares less about the ethics of it (eg China) doing some big geoengineering thing (eg silver particles in the upper atmosphere) to try to reduce the effects of climate change they suffer. Bit of a mixed bag but not entirely hopeless.