6 ms·

I want to see a serious statistician look at the Hans Niemann chess cheating case. There could very well be similar bias and shoddy statistics at play there

AmericanChopper 4y ago
Which case? The multiple instances of cheating he has confessed to? Or the one that he denies?
- czx4f4bd 4y ago
  He confessed to cheating online, not over the board. People have used shoddy statistics to allege that he cheated over the board, but none of them have held up under scrutiny. I'm not saying the guy is a saint, but low-effort cheating in low-stakes online games by looking at an engine in the background seems substantially different than what would be required to cheat completely undetectably in major tournaments with many people watching.
  - fsckboy 4y ago
    but in the same sense those two things seem substantially different, the trajectory of his late blooming career success is also substantially different from that of just about everybody else playing and also calls out for explanation.
    - kennyloginz 4y ago
      This idea has spread far, but isn’t true. Even the chess.com report shows that his trajectory was not much different than other juniors.
  - harimau777 4y ago
    That seems like a "lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas" situation. If someone doesn't want to be accused of cheating in a high-stakes game then they shouldn't cheat in a low-stakes game.
    - lelanthran 4y ago
      > That seems like a "lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas" situation. If someone doesn't want to be accused of cheating in a high-stakes game then they shouldn't cheat in a low-stakes game. On the one hand, I'm inclined to agree with the assertion that dishonesty damages one's credibility. On the other hand, there's degrees of dishonesty - should someone who (intentionally lied, and) denied going over the speed limit be automatically considered lying when he also denies premeditated murder?
      - vgatherps 4y ago
        It feels like a leap to compare the claim "This guy cheated in some low stakes chess games and shouldn't really be trusted in high stakes chess games" to the claim "This person committed a minor misdemeanour so they shouldn't be trusted when they claim they didn't kill someone"
        lelanthran 4y ago
        How about: This person cheated in an exam in middle school so shouldn't be trusted with exams in med school. Because, yeah, when he cheated he was a kid. Kids frequently do stupid things.
  - kennyloginz 4y ago
    Anecdotally, in the past year I happened to be in the vicinity of Hans and noticed some behaviors. The guy is absolutely obsessed about chess, and is good at it. The simple fact that he can hang with the best in OTB bullet ( and shorter time controls ) proved to me he was legit, no question, he just really freaking loves chess!
    - jonny_eh 4y ago
      Does he love it so much that he's willing to risk cheating to win?
- burnished 4y ago
  Didnt chess.com publish a report that found no evidence of wrong doing in that specific tournament?
  - kennyloginz 4y ago
    They absolutely did, 72 pages.
radicaldreamer 4y ago
It's possible, but most of the evidence in that case comes from circumstantial evidence, specifically the fact that he can't really explain the game he just played.
kennyloginz 4y ago
Here ya go, analysis by Ken Regan ( also a statistician obsessed with quantum mechanics, like the researcher in the article )…. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRLZTkd30c https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRLZTkd30c

AmericanChopper 4y ago

Which case? The multiple instances of cheating he has confessed to? Or the one that he denies?

czx4f4bd 4y ago
He confessed to cheating online, not over the board. People have used shoddy statistics to allege that he cheated over the board, but none of them have held up under scrutiny. I'm not saying the guy is a saint, but low-effort cheating in low-stakes online games by looking at an engine in the background seems substantially different than what would be required to cheat completely undetectably in major tournaments with many people watching.
- fsckboy 4y ago
  but in the same sense those two things seem substantially different, the trajectory of his late blooming career success is also substantially different from that of just about everybody else playing and also calls out for explanation.
  - kennyloginz 4y ago
    This idea has spread far, but isn’t true. Even the chess.com report shows that his trajectory was not much different than other juniors.
- harimau777 4y ago
  That seems like a "lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas" situation. If someone doesn't want to be accused of cheating in a high-stakes game then they shouldn't cheat in a low-stakes game.
  - lelanthran 4y ago
    > That seems like a "lie down with dogs, wake up with fleas" situation. If someone doesn't want to be accused of cheating in a high-stakes game then they shouldn't cheat in a low-stakes game. On the one hand, I'm inclined to agree with the assertion that dishonesty damages one's credibility. On the other hand, there's degrees of dishonesty - should someone who (intentionally lied, and) denied going over the speed limit be automatically considered lying when he also denies premeditated murder?
    - vgatherps 4y ago
      It feels like a leap to compare the claim "This guy cheated in some low stakes chess games and shouldn't really be trusted in high stakes chess games" to the claim "This person committed a minor misdemeanour so they shouldn't be trusted when they claim they didn't kill someone"
      - lelanthran 4y ago
        How about: This person cheated in an exam in middle school so shouldn't be trusted with exams in med school. Because, yeah, when he cheated he was a kid. Kids frequently do stupid things.
- kennyloginz 4y ago
  Anecdotally, in the past year I happened to be in the vicinity of Hans and noticed some behaviors. The guy is absolutely obsessed about chess, and is good at it. The simple fact that he can hang with the best in OTB bullet ( and shorter time controls ) proved to me he was legit, no question, he just really freaking loves chess!
  - jonny_eh 4y ago
    Does he love it so much that he's willing to risk cheating to win?
burnished 4y ago
Didnt chess.com publish a report that found no evidence of wrong doing in that specific tournament?
- kennyloginz 4y ago
  They absolutely did, 72 pages.

radicaldreamer 4y ago

It's possible, but most of the evidence in that case comes from circumstantial evidence, specifically the fact that he can't really explain the game he just played.

kennyloginz 4y ago

Here ya go, analysis by Ken Regan ( also a statistician obsessed with quantum mechanics, like the researcher in the article )…. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRLZTkd30c https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRLZTkd30c