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> Thanks for the site: it's a good tool to demonstrate just how unfeasible energy storage really is. It’s amazing how clearly you can see the trees without rea

> Thanks for the site: it's a good tool to demonstrate just how unfeasible energy storage really is. It’s amazing how clearly you can see the trees without realizing there’s a forest. Battery production capacity has been scaling like crazy and will continue to scale like crazy: https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-lithium-ion-battery-capacity-to-rise-five-fold-by-2030/ https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-lithium-ion-ba... It doesn’t matter if battery prices increase some, as you have made that the cornerstone of your argument. Many many comments ago, I linked to the Hornsdale battery. Based on the revenue, you can do the math: the batteries could cost a lot more, and it would still have been profitable. Batteries also don’t make up the entire cost of grid scale storage: the inverters, the transformers, even the cabinets and control computers cost money. As it is, mining is a lagging indicator. Once mining scales up, the cost of the commodities will naturally go back down. While there is profit to be made, too many people will open mines, which will bring the profitability back down to earth. It’s a tale as old as supply chains. This same inability to imagine how quickly solar and wind would drop in price led to numerous “experts” making absurd claims about solar and wind being economically infeasible at any scale. The battery supply chain is scaling. There will be price volatility, but the volume is growing by leaps and bounds. It will take years for the world to transition, but it also takes years to build and install the necessary wind and solar. Battery production won’t remain constant, and it won’t even increase slightly. It has and will increase drastically.

Manuel_D 4y ago
Predictions and actual capability are two vastly different things. Outside the realm of predictions, back here in reality, battery costs are actually increasing rather than declining [1]. "Just scale up mining" is easier said than done. Steel is a widely used commodity. If we could "just scale up mining" and exponentially decrease the cost of materials, why haven't we been able to do this with steel? Care you explain why "just scale up mining" will work for lithium when it hasn't for plenty of other commodities? 1. https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-rise-for-first-time-to-an-average-of-151-kwh/#:~:text=After%20more%20than%20a%20decade,last%20year%20in%20real%20terms https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...
- coder543 4y ago
  I said prices would be volatile. Scaling has worked for plenty of other commodities. As I said, I’m out.
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    > Scaling has worked for plenty of other commodities. Besides transistors and other electronics, which commodities have seen consistent exponential growth relative to cost?
    - coder543 4y ago
      That’s an irrelevant question. I hate that I’m still bothering to respond when you don’t seem interested in changing your position. There is a fixed cost to extract a kilogram of lithium using a given method. When demand spikes, lithium suppliers will charge more and reinvest those profits into increasing mining capacity. If they had their way, they’d keep prices high, but anyone can open a lithium mine. Lithium is not hard to find. Those people will undercut the previous miner in order to attract buyers, which will force all miners to lower prices back to reality. As long as prices are high, more and more mines will open as it is suddenly an attractive resource to mine. This will happen until prices start to drop to some percentage-over-cost where things stop being attractive, and the market reaches equilibrium again. If lithium was profitable to mine for $X/kg for many years, then that is the price it will naturally return to. It is a commodity. There is no special value for getting your lithium from Corporation X or Corporation Y. The only value is the material. That’s how commodities work. The price is determined by how hard it is to extract, and whether demand has recently spiked (or subsided). Gold is expensive because it If this were some rare substance, extraction difficulty would increase noticeably with time, but we’re a long way from a shortage of ways to mine lithium. Some ways might be more expensive, so those mines will only open if the prices stay high, but the prices won’t rise indefinitely this century. That is such an illogical assumption. Perhaps the natural price of high volume lithium production is higher than we have today because those more expensive methods are convenient, but it won’t be enough of a price increase to matter in the grand scheme of things, and this assumption of a higher price is a pretty flimsy one to base predictions on even then. Eventually, as batteries age, they will be recycled, and the need for lithium mining will likely drop sharply, bankrupting some of these mines until production and (profitable) demand are matched again.

Manuel_D 4y ago

Predictions and actual capability are two vastly different things. Outside the realm of predictions, back here in reality, battery costs are actually increasing rather than declining [1]. "Just scale up mining" is easier said than done. Steel is a widely used commodity. If we could "just scale up mining" and exponentially decrease the cost of materials, why haven't we been able to do this with steel? Care you explain why "just scale up mining" will work for lithium when it hasn't for plenty of other commodities? 1. https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-rise-for-first-time-to-an-average-of-151-kwh/#:~:text=After%20more%20than%20a%20decade,last%20year%20in%20real%20terms https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-...

coder543 4y ago
I said prices would be volatile. Scaling has worked for plenty of other commodities. As I said, I’m out.
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  > Scaling has worked for plenty of other commodities. Besides transistors and other electronics, which commodities have seen consistent exponential growth relative to cost?
  - coder543 4y ago
    That’s an irrelevant question. I hate that I’m still bothering to respond when you don’t seem interested in changing your position. There is a fixed cost to extract a kilogram of lithium using a given method. When demand spikes, lithium suppliers will charge more and reinvest those profits into increasing mining capacity. If they had their way, they’d keep prices high, but anyone can open a lithium mine. Lithium is not hard to find. Those people will undercut the previous miner in order to attract buyers, which will force all miners to lower prices back to reality. As long as prices are high, more and more mines will open as it is suddenly an attractive resource to mine. This will happen until prices start to drop to some percentage-over-cost where things stop being attractive, and the market reaches equilibrium again. If lithium was profitable to mine for $X/kg for many years, then that is the price it will naturally return to. It is a commodity. There is no special value for getting your lithium from Corporation X or Corporation Y. The only value is the material. That’s how commodities work. The price is determined by how hard it is to extract, and whether demand has recently spiked (or subsided). Gold is expensive because it If this were some rare substance, extraction difficulty would increase noticeably with time, but we’re a long way from a shortage of ways to mine lithium. Some ways might be more expensive, so those mines will only open if the prices stay high, but the prices won’t rise indefinitely this century. That is such an illogical assumption. Perhaps the natural price of high volume lithium production is higher than we have today because those more expensive methods are convenient, but it won’t be enough of a price increase to matter in the grand scheme of things, and this assumption of a higher price is a pretty flimsy one to base predictions on even then. Eventually, as batteries age, they will be recycled, and the need for lithium mining will likely drop sharply, bankrupting some of these mines until production and (profitable) demand are matched again.