> People have been assuming that battery cost will continue to decline exponentially. I think the incredible success of the transistor industry has created som

> People have been assuming that battery cost will continue to decline exponentially. I think the incredible success of the transistor industry has created some very unrealistic expectations about the pace of technological advance more generally. I know this is a fallacy I used to fall for. If a pocket sized computer today can beat out a supercomputer the size of a small building from when I was a kid, anything seems possible. But in reality, the rapid miniaturization of transistors is an extraordinary outlier.