4 ms·

> I agree with most of what you say, but renewables can’t be counted on, so they can never be blamed. Renewables are fairly predictable, so they can be counted

> I agree with most of what you say, but renewables can’t be counted on, so they can never be blamed. Renewables are fairly predictable, so they can be counted on. The production is variable, but not unreliable or unpredictable. It's an important distinction, and it gives more time for the grid to coordinate with Demand Response (or peaker plants) to match load and production. Obviously the weather models involved are still improving, but for solar especially, it's easy to predict when the sun will go down. Cloud coverage and wind forecasting are active areas of development to make things easier and more predictable for everyone.

loeg 4y ago
> Renewables are fairly predictable, so they can be counted on. The production is variable, but not unreliable or unpredictable. It's an important distinction, and it gives more time for the grid to coordinate with Demand Response (or peaker plants) to match load and production. Was Germany's months-long period of low wind in 2022 predictable in this sense? Was Germany supposed to stop using electricity for months as Demand Reduction? I buy that you can maybe store enough power for overnight demand if solar generates enough during the day (at some potentially large cost), but wind can just stop blowing for weeks. Storage cannot solve that without outrageous cost, or blackouts.
- coder543 4y ago
  I can't find any actual accounts of the wind stopping entirely for "weeks" in Germany. It is a theoretical possibility. Periods of "low wind" are fully expected in summer, since there is usually more wind power generated in winter, although I'm not sure when you're referring to specifically. Similarly, solar produces more power in summer and less in winter. Critically, we have the ability to transmit power over distance. That's the whole point of having a grid, instead of just having each person operating off-grid and only having access to the resources that are within arm's reach of their house. Individual solar panels may be under a cloud or individual wind turbines may experience no wind, but it is tremendously less likely for entire regions to experience this for an extended period of time. The US has encountered several winter storms that brought a number of our fossil fuel plants to a halt for days at a time, causing blackouts. That's not theoretical.
  - loeg 4y ago
    These are what I'm remembering re: Germany and reduced wind. This was during winter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28521533 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28521533 https://public.substack.com/p/german-emissions-from-electricity-674 https://public.substack.com/p/german-emissions-from-electric... We do have transmission, but it is lossy and expensive, and the places it is cheaper to transmit from are geographically adjacent and are going to have similar solar and wind conditions. If you're talking about Texas' gas plants, yeah, that was not good. But gas plants are an essential part of preventing blackouts in a wind/solar grid, so I'm not sure this is a point in wind/solar's favor.
    - pfdietz 4y ago
      Rare "dark calm" backup can be done with gas plants. The gas can be hydrogen. Hydrogen is not cheap, compared to what natural gas typically costs, but for rare event backup it doesn't have to be cheap.

loeg 4y ago

> Renewables are fairly predictable, so they can be counted on. The production is variable, but not unreliable or unpredictable. It's an important distinction, and it gives more time for the grid to coordinate with Demand Response (or peaker plants) to match load and production. Was Germany's months-long period of low wind in 2022 predictable in this sense? Was Germany supposed to stop using electricity for months as Demand Reduction? I buy that you can maybe store enough power for overnight demand if solar generates enough during the day (at some potentially large cost), but wind can just stop blowing for weeks. Storage cannot solve that without outrageous cost, or blackouts.

coder543 4y ago
I can't find any actual accounts of the wind stopping entirely for "weeks" in Germany. It is a theoretical possibility. Periods of "low wind" are fully expected in summer, since there is usually more wind power generated in winter, although I'm not sure when you're referring to specifically. Similarly, solar produces more power in summer and less in winter. Critically, we have the ability to transmit power over distance. That's the whole point of having a grid, instead of just having each person operating off-grid and only having access to the resources that are within arm's reach of their house. Individual solar panels may be under a cloud or individual wind turbines may experience no wind, but it is tremendously less likely for entire regions to experience this for an extended period of time. The US has encountered several winter storms that brought a number of our fossil fuel plants to a halt for days at a time, causing blackouts. That's not theoretical.
- loeg 4y ago
  These are what I'm remembering re: Germany and reduced wind. This was during winter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28521533 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28521533 https://public.substack.com/p/german-emissions-from-electricity-674 https://public.substack.com/p/german-emissions-from-electric... We do have transmission, but it is lossy and expensive, and the places it is cheaper to transmit from are geographically adjacent and are going to have similar solar and wind conditions. If you're talking about Texas' gas plants, yeah, that was not good. But gas plants are an essential part of preventing blackouts in a wind/solar grid, so I'm not sure this is a point in wind/solar's favor.
  - pfdietz 4y ago
    Rare "dark calm" backup can be done with gas plants. The gas can be hydrogen. Hydrogen is not cheap, compared to what natural gas typically costs, but for rare event backup it doesn't have to be cheap.