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> The overwhelming majority of electricity demand is base load. Usually on the order of 70-80% [1]. We don't need "some" base load, almost all our demand is bas

> The overwhelming majority of electricity demand is base load. Usually on the order of 70-80% [1]. We don't need "some" base load, almost all our demand is base load. The article you linked doesn't really back this up, at least in the way this discussion means it. It shows that with flexible production, you can drastically scale back on "traditional" base load power sources, and that is representing a real power grid in Germany. Nothing about the graph actually says "this is as much renewables as you can pack into this power grid". If you look at the graph closely, you'll notice that solar is big during the day, and wind is big during the night. With greater installed wind production capacity, the fossil fuel lines would drop drastically in the graph. It's that simple. We would still need to have "peaker plants" available until there is enough grid energy storage capacity, but combined cycle natural plants work fine for that. We can keep pushing down the time they need to on by building more renewables even without batteries. > The storage facility you linked to was the biggest facility in the world when it was first constructed, and it stored only 129 MWh of electricity. I specifically linked that one because it talks about how ridiculously profitable it has been, and how much of an impact it has had on the local grid. If it can save money for a traditional grid, then it is a no-brainer for utilities to install bigger and bigger grid batteries. More demand for batteries means more battery production facilities, increasing global production capacity over time. However, the world is also transitioning to Electric Vehicles, and most EV manufacturers are offering V2G (vehicle to grid) solutions, so millions of EVs can contribute a portion of their battery capacity to the grid in the future, and the grid can compensate them for their contribution. > Battery production is expected to increase, but it's unclear whether raw material inputs can keep up with manufacturing demands [2]. Lithium is not exactly rare or hard to extract, you can even extract lithium from saltwater, so this argument seems specious. But, various alternative chemistries are being explored which could help in different ways. > At our current rate of battery production it'd take us a century of dedicating 100% of our battery output to grid storage to reach 1 day's worth of storage. How did you determine that we need a full day's worth of energy storage? We can drastically decarbonize the grid (and lower electric costs for consumers) with a lot less than that, based on what I've seen, but this is a highly speculative part of the discussion so it's interesting to hear how that number came to be.

Manuel_D 4y ago
Look at the the lowest point of energy demand. That's base load. How big is it relative to the peak of energy demand? Depends on the season, but it's usually 70-80% of peak demand. So, the vast majority of energy demand is in fact base load. I'm really confused about why renewable proponents talk about base load all the time - it's really not relevant to decarbonization of the grid. Intermittency of wind and solar aren't just daily: you also have longer-term periods of cloud weather blocking solar and lower wind speed hampering wind power. Actually running a majority renewable grid requires either hydroelectricity, or fossil fuels. The majority of Germany's electricity comes from fossil fuels [1]. It's not a mostly renewable grid, occasionally supplemented by peaker plants. It's a majority fossil fuel grid supplemented by renewables. By comparison, here's France's electricity production [2]. One of these is a mostly decarbonized grid. The other is a primarily fossil fuel grid, supplemented by renewables here and there. > However, the world is also transitioning to Electric Vehicles, and most EV manufacturers are offering V2G (vehicle to grid) solutions, so millions of EVs can contribute a portion of their battery capacity to the grid in the future, and the grid can compensate them for their contribution. This is an idea that no sane grid operator would ever accept. First of all, most of these vehicles actually lose energy in cold weather [3]. And if people leave to go on vacation, then we have blackouts because our energy storage solution drove away for a week? No to mention, plenty of people drive their cars around during the day doing chores or work and charge them at night. Those people are going to be a net drain on the grid. > Lithium is not exactly rare or hard to extract, you can even extract lithium from saltwater, so this argument seems specious. But, various chemistries are being explored. The market demonstrates otherwise. At the end of the day, if there's a shortage of lithium and the price goes it up it doesn't really matter what people are writing on tech forums. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Germany's_electricity_generation_by_major_fuel,_energy_sources_and_share_of_electricity_generation_by_fuel,_energy_source,_from_2000_through_2017_(47958295396).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_France#/media/File:France_Electricity_production_1981-2017_(EIA).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_France#/media/File:F... 3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34120237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34120237
- coder543 4y ago

Manuel_D 4y ago

Look at the the lowest point of energy demand. That's base load. How big is it relative to the peak of energy demand? Depends on the season, but it's usually 70-80% of peak demand. So, the vast majority of energy demand is in fact base load. I'm really confused about why renewable proponents talk about base load all the time - it's really not relevant to decarbonization of the grid. Intermittency of wind and solar aren't just daily: you also have longer-term periods of cloud weather blocking solar and lower wind speed hampering wind power. Actually running a majority renewable grid requires either hydroelectricity, or fossil fuels. The majority of Germany's electricity comes from fossil fuels [1]. It's not a mostly renewable grid, occasionally supplemented by peaker plants. It's a majority fossil fuel grid supplemented by renewables. By comparison, here's France's electricity production [2]. One of these is a mostly decarbonized grid. The other is a primarily fossil fuel grid, supplemented by renewables here and there. > However, the world is also transitioning to Electric Vehicles, and most EV manufacturers are offering V2G (vehicle to grid) solutions, so millions of EVs can contribute a portion of their battery capacity to the grid in the future, and the grid can compensate them for their contribution. This is an idea that no sane grid operator would ever accept. First of all, most of these vehicles actually lose energy in cold weather [3]. And if people leave to go on vacation, then we have blackouts because our energy storage solution drove away for a week? No to mention, plenty of people drive their cars around during the day doing chores or work and charge them at night. Those people are going to be a net drain on the grid. > Lithium is not exactly rare or hard to extract, you can even extract lithium from saltwater, so this argument seems specious. But, various chemistries are being explored. The market demonstrates otherwise. At the end of the day, if there's a shortage of lithium and the price goes it up it doesn't really matter what people are writing on tech forums. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Germany's_electricity_generation_by_major_fuel,_energy_sources_and_share_of_electricity_generation_by_fuel,_energy_source,_from_2000_through_2017_(47958295396).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_France#/media/File:France_Electricity_production_1981-2017_(EIA).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_France#/media/File:F... 3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34120237 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34120237

coder543 4y ago