I think like most things in life the success factor directly correlates with the amount of tries. If you try to organize one party in five years its clear that

I think like most things in life the success factor directly correlates with the amount of tries. If you try to organize one party in five years its clear that the success will not be guaranteed because your friends might either not be partying so much, not used to be participating in parties, other schedule, etc. Think about it like this: unless you have been declining parties regularly in the past years it is safe to say you have a selective bias in your friends towards people who don't really do parties (either they don't want to or they don't prioritiize them in their schedules). The upside is the more you party the more you will find people in your friends group who also like to party and it is a feedback loop with increasing opportunities.