Insurance underwrites active war zones all the time with war risk cover / premium. Otherwise PRC has the 2nd largest (and growing) merchant fleet and can insure

Insurance underwrites active war zones all the time with war risk cover / premium. Otherwise PRC has the 2nd largest (and growing) merchant fleet and can insure on their own in event of sanctions, which is unlikely because many trade dependent nations are much more vulnerable to disruption. Overall, affected sure, but again it’s a matter of how much. I contend not much, at least not enough to deter in a limited TW scenario with only PRC and TW as belligerents. Attacks on commercial shipping happen near coasts, look at where Mokova hit Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping occurred in the last few years, and that’s from define belligerents operating from much more permissive conditions. All the while energy continues to flow from the Gulf. Strait / adjacent routes “near” TW warzone can be diverted even further out, a few 100 nms to be nowhere "near '' active warzone, incidentally why this article's assumption that PRC controlled TW would threaten JP shipping is stupid. Naval warfare between PRC + US where shipping can be disrupted is a different story, but again, that’s why PRC building CONUS strike deterrent. Otherwise, limited PRC-TW scenario I imagine much less than zero covid levels of shipping disruption, few months to a year depending on how fast PRC rushes blockade, with single digit % hit on economy.