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AI, robotics, climate, fusion, whole bunch of biotech... There's still ample tech innovation happening right now.

simonh 4y ago
Those are (except for one) all things that have been about to be massively revolutionary any day now for my entire life, and I'm in my 50s. Recessions generally only last for a few years, with a few more years of hangover after that. Lets say in the 3 to 5 year range before we're (hopefully) solidly into recovery. For a technology to actually make a material economic difference in that time frame it needs to have been out of the lab and going into mass adoption right now. In 2008 the iPhone was already out and the App Store was launched that year, but arguably the smartphone didn't become a significant economic factor until around 2012. All the other services paulpauper cited as playing a role in the post 2008 recovery had been out for years, some of them almost a decade, but they just hit critical mass where they became economically impactful around then. Green tech is the main exception, it's solidly into the steep phase of the adoption curve and has received a massive boots in investment in the last 12 months as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act*, plus the Ukraine war and the pivot away from Russian hydrocarbons. * Gotta love US bill names. You just know the "Cute kittens appreciation act" is going to cull and stuff all the cute kittens.
arcticbull 4y ago
Ah to be clear I didn't mean to imply there was not going to be one (or many). I think those are broadly extremely promising areas even if I'd quibble with the inclusion of one or two of them. I'm eager to see how this all plays out.
jossclimb 4y ago
blockchain (runs and hides)
- arcticbull 4y ago
  Why do you have to hurt me like this? > It remains to be seen if we land a meaningful revolution this time: lord knows it ain't the blockchain, but will it be AI?

Those are (except for one) all things that have been about to be massively revolutionary any day now for my entire life, and I'm in my 50s. Recessions generally only last for a few years, with a few more years of hangover after that. Lets say in the 3 to 5 year range before we're (hopefully) solidly into recovery. For a technology to actually make a material economic difference in that time frame it needs to have been out of the lab and going into mass adoption right now. In 2008 the iPhone was already out and the App Store was launched that year, but arguably the smartphone didn't become a significant economic factor until around 2012. All the other services paulpauper cited as playing a role in the post 2008 recovery had been out for years, some of them almost a decade, but they just hit critical mass where they became economically impactful around then. Green tech is the main exception, it's solidly into the steep phase of the adoption curve and has received a massive boots in investment in the last 12 months as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act*, plus the Ukraine war and the pivot away from Russian hydrocarbons. * Gotta love US bill names. You just know the "Cute kittens appreciation act" is going to cull and stuff all the cute kittens.

arcticbull 4y ago

Ah to be clear I didn't mean to imply there was not going to be one (or many). I think those are broadly extremely promising areas even if I'd quibble with the inclusion of one or two of them. I'm eager to see how this all plays out.

jossclimb 4y ago

blockchain (runs and hides)

arcticbull 4y ago
Why do you have to hurt me like this? > It remains to be seen if we land a meaningful revolution this time: lord knows it ain't the blockchain, but will it be AI?