I think part of the problem might be that the biggest numbers get the most publicity. So if one person says it's +1 degree and one person says it's +2 degrees o

I think part of the problem might be that the biggest numbers get the most publicity. So if one person says it's +1 degree and one person says it's +2 degrees over the same time period, the more dire prediction will win. So it's hard to get a realistic estimate because you mostly just hear "it could be as bad as ###" and "it could only be ###, that's not too bad".