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Are we in a bad economy? Bitcoin market cap is 400bln. OpenAI eyes 30bln valuation etc. etc. Business cycles, timing the downturn and all that, does this Warre

• alfalfasprout 4y ago
  Just because bitcoin and OpenAI have nontrivial value doesn't mean we're not in a bad economy. Inflation is rampant still, even wealthier folks are cutting back, and interest rate hikes are destroying markets. Keep in mind markets always lead the broader economy by at least several months. They'll crash well before earnings consistently start looking bad and recover before you see earnings recover. US interest rate hikes are also having an outsized effect on other countries vs. the domestic economy.
  • rgmerk 4y ago
    Things might be bad in Silicon Valley right now but the broader economy is still chugging along pretty well.
  • college_physics 4y ago
    its a very mixed bag. e.g., mortgage delinquency rates near historical lows [0]. I picked those valuation examples to illustrate that 1) there is a lot of discretionary "investment" wealth around and 2) people are still clinging to the various "disruption" narratives. obviously inflation is real and the new rates regime is real but it feels that people are pre-emptively trying to cool things down, build some buffers etc. rather than an already realized economic malaise. the implication for the "time your startup" narrative of OP is that it is even less clearcut of a decision than if it was a real (let alone deep) recession. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS