4 ms·

How many of those experienced personnel stick around to pass on their knowledge? Not nearly enough to have an effective military. We'll find out our true readin

How many of those experienced personnel stick around to pass on their knowledge? Not nearly enough to have an effective military. We'll find out our true readiness when we face a competent enemy.

mschuster91 4y ago
And who should that be? Certainly not Russia, they're getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine and won't be a threat for decades to come - Germany post 1945 had an immense amount of industry and other production to help us getting back on our feet rather quickly, but Russia doesn't have anything beyond exporting oil and gas. And not China either, because no matter how unexperienced the US Army is, the Chinese have virtually no experience other than trading shots and fist fights on the Indian border or acting like a school bully in their neighborhood - and most Chinese stuff is based on old Soviet shit (whose "quality" is currently being shown in Ukraine) or stolen Western tech.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  > old Soviet shit (whose "quality" is currently being shown in Ukraine) Both sides in Ukraine rely heavily on Soviet equipment. One of the major problems Russia faces in Ukraine is the highly effective air defense infrastructure the Soviet Union built. As for China, it has a mixture of heavily upgraded Soviet equipment (e.g., Flankers with modern sensors, electronics and missiles), and its own indigenous designs (for example, it's the only country other than the US to develop and produce a 5th Generation fighter jet). Given China's proven ability to develop high-tech products and manufacture at scale, why would you doubt that it's capable of producing modern military hardware?
  - lmm 4y ago
    It's hard to produce effective military hardware when your customer is a parade-ground military. The incentives don't line up, which is killer even if you have a strong culture of integrity.
  - mschuster91 4y ago
    > Given China's proven ability to develop high-tech products and manufacture at scale, why would you doubt that it's capable of producing modern military hardware? Oh, they are certainly capable - but unlike the US, nothing what the Chinese build in terms of heavy equipment has been tested in an actual battle, neither has the logistics of their army or the command structure, both of which Russia sorely lacks in Ukraine. In contrast, the US has all three aspects nailed and refined for decades. Also... who says that it's not all just a paper tiger? Everyone was scared about the T-14 Armata or a lot of other Russian stuff that was in reality just fraud everywhere along the chain. China suffers just the same problems with endemic corruption and a yes-men attitude as Russia does.
    - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
      > the US has all three aspects nailed and refined for decades. The US has plenty of experience, but it's all in fighting opponents who can barely fire back. No one has any idea how the US would fare against a real opponent. Even the shock to the public, which is used to relatively low-casualty colonial wars, would be difficult to gauge. > China suffers just the same problems with endemic corruption and a yes-men attitude as Russia does. I don't know if there's much similarity between the China and Russia, given that I only know the culture of one of those countries relatively well. What I will say is that based on my own observations, China is highly competent at pulling off large and complex projects - much more so than the US.
ryanwaggoner 4y ago
That’s the point: there are no other competent enemies, either in the sense of funding, or in terms of wartime experience. No one else even comes close. It’s possible that China will get there someday, but that’s likely decades and multiple conflicts away.

How many of those experienced personnel stick around to pass on their knowledge? Not nearly enough to have an effective military. We'll find out our true readiness when we face a competent enemy.

mschuster91 4y ago

And who should that be? Certainly not Russia, they're getting their asses handed to them in Ukraine and won't be a threat for decades to come - Germany post 1945 had an immense amount of industry and other production to help us getting back on our feet rather quickly, but Russia doesn't have anything beyond exporting oil and gas. And not China either, because no matter how unexperienced the US Army is, the Chinese have virtually no experience other than trading shots and fist fights on the Indian border or acting like a school bully in their neighborhood - and most Chinese stuff is based on old Soviet shit (whose "quality" is currently being shown in Ukraine) or stolen Western tech.

DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
> old Soviet shit (whose "quality" is currently being shown in Ukraine) Both sides in Ukraine rely heavily on Soviet equipment. One of the major problems Russia faces in Ukraine is the highly effective air defense infrastructure the Soviet Union built. As for China, it has a mixture of heavily upgraded Soviet equipment (e.g., Flankers with modern sensors, electronics and missiles), and its own indigenous designs (for example, it's the only country other than the US to develop and produce a 5th Generation fighter jet). Given China's proven ability to develop high-tech products and manufacture at scale, why would you doubt that it's capable of producing modern military hardware?
- lmm 4y ago
  It's hard to produce effective military hardware when your customer is a parade-ground military. The incentives don't line up, which is killer even if you have a strong culture of integrity.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  > Given China's proven ability to develop high-tech products and manufacture at scale, why would you doubt that it's capable of producing modern military hardware? Oh, they are certainly capable - but unlike the US, nothing what the Chinese build in terms of heavy equipment has been tested in an actual battle, neither has the logistics of their army or the command structure, both of which Russia sorely lacks in Ukraine. In contrast, the US has all three aspects nailed and refined for decades. Also... who says that it's not all just a paper tiger? Everyone was scared about the T-14 Armata or a lot of other Russian stuff that was in reality just fraud everywhere along the chain. China suffers just the same problems with endemic corruption and a yes-men attitude as Russia does.
  - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
    > the US has all three aspects nailed and refined for decades. The US has plenty of experience, but it's all in fighting opponents who can barely fire back. No one has any idea how the US would fare against a real opponent. Even the shock to the public, which is used to relatively low-casualty colonial wars, would be difficult to gauge. > China suffers just the same problems with endemic corruption and a yes-men attitude as Russia does. I don't know if there's much similarity between the China and Russia, given that I only know the culture of one of those countries relatively well. What I will say is that based on my own observations, China is highly competent at pulling off large and complex projects - much more so than the US.

ryanwaggoner 4y ago

That’s the point: there are no other competent enemies, either in the sense of funding, or in terms of wartime experience. No one else even comes close. It’s possible that China will get there someday, but that’s likely decades and multiple conflicts away.