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I mean, people are not robots, but I think it's pretty obvious people do work that way. Famously, one of the factors in the collapse of the USSR was people rea

I mean, people are not robots, but I think it's pretty obvious people do work that way. Famously, one of the factors in the collapse of the USSR was people realizing society was breaking and starting to work with grey market or criminal groups. You can search for the impact on crime of basically ANY social support program (sanctuary cities[1], substance abuse treatment[2], SNAP[3]) and they all reduce crime. How people deal with a lack of resources is highly personal. It's true that few of them track down and murder the people who stole from them (it's hard and also most people don't want to kill others). But again, it's extremely well established that people with more going for them commit fewer crimes. [1] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-effects-of-sanctuary-policies-on-crime-and-the-economy/ https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-effects-of-sanc... [2] https://www.nber.org/papers/w22610 https://www.nber.org/papers/w22610 [3] https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/101/2/310/58516/SNAP-Benefits-and-Crime-Evidence-from-Changing?redirectedFrom=fulltext https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/101/2/310/58516...

jlawson 4y ago
This is intuitive but wrong; the balance of evidence is that poverty does not drive people to crime. During economic contractions in the west for example, crime does not spike. 2008, or even the great depression: No crime jump. In the past in the west, when everyone was much poorer (1960's back to 19th century) crime was often substantially lower even than now. We're talking 1930's slums here. Poverty correlates with crime, but the causation is probably the other way: Crime destroys wealth of a community. Or it might be a third cause: The kind of people who commit a lot of crime in their community are also the kind who are economically dysfunctional in general and will create poverty for themselves.
- aeturnum 4y ago
  It's not that poverty causes all crime. Wealthy people commit different crimes than poor people. [1] You bring up the 2008 recession, but the poverty rate, rose from ~12% to ~15%[2]. A meaningful but not earth-moving change. Median wages did not decrease [3], suggesting that the rise in poverty would be from job loss, which has not been shown to have a simplistic, direct relationship to crime [4]. The fact that poverty is not the most important factor in crime does not mean it is not a factor. That is all to say - poverty (and in a wider sense forms of desperation) are not the sole force driving crime, but they are a force for certain crimes. Again, it's very reliable that you can reduce crime with better social support. That's not to say that crime == poverty, just that it's one of many factors that influence people. [1] https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-socialproblems/chapter/8-3-who-commits-crime/ https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-socialproblems/chapte... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-s... [3] https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/private/pdf/154286/50YearTrends.pdf https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/private/pdf/154286/... [4] https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/unemployment-and-crime-1 https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/unemploy...
luckylion 4y ago
With extreme poverty, you'd probably see some increase in crime. But I doubt you'll see social unrest, unless it's very specific, e.g. you cut off welfare to some ethnic group in the US, and it'll need some level of coordination behind it. I doubt the government will allow that kind of organization for a large scale issue where "the system" is at stake and it's not just some local racial riot.

jlawson 4y ago

This is intuitive but wrong; the balance of evidence is that poverty does not drive people to crime. During economic contractions in the west for example, crime does not spike. 2008, or even the great depression: No crime jump. In the past in the west, when everyone was much poorer (1960's back to 19th century) crime was often substantially lower even than now. We're talking 1930's slums here. Poverty correlates with crime, but the causation is probably the other way: Crime destroys wealth of a community. Or it might be a third cause: The kind of people who commit a lot of crime in their community are also the kind who are economically dysfunctional in general and will create poverty for themselves.

aeturnum 4y ago
It's not that poverty causes all crime. Wealthy people commit different crimes than poor people. [1] You bring up the 2008 recession, but the poverty rate, rose from ~12% to ~15%[2]. A meaningful but not earth-moving change. Median wages did not decrease [3], suggesting that the rise in poverty would be from job loss, which has not been shown to have a simplistic, direct relationship to crime [4]. The fact that poverty is not the most important factor in crime does not mean it is not a factor. That is all to say - poverty (and in a wider sense forms of desperation) are not the sole force driving crime, but they are a force for certain crimes. Again, it's very reliable that you can reduce crime with better social support. That's not to say that crime == poverty, just that it's one of many factors that influence people. [1] https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-socialproblems/chapter/8-3-who-commits-crime/ https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-socialproblems/chapte... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/200463/us-poverty-rate-s... [3] https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/private/pdf/154286/50YearTrends.pdf https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/private/pdf/154286/... [4] https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/unemployment-and-crime-1 https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/unemploy...

luckylion 4y ago

With extreme poverty, you'd probably see some increase in crime. But I doubt you'll see social unrest, unless it's very specific, e.g. you cut off welfare to some ethnic group in the US, and it'll need some level of coordination behind it. I doubt the government will allow that kind of organization for a large scale issue where "the system" is at stake and it's not just some local racial riot.