3 ms·

I have zero expertise in this area, but I did read an article earlier today suggesting that the bigger naval fleet almost always wins against a technically supe

I have zero expertise in this area, but I did read an article earlier today suggesting that the bigger naval fleet almost always wins against a technically superior but smaller fleet, and that China already has the world’s largest navy [0] [0] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-size-history-victory-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-siz...

simonh 4y ago
The problem the Chinese fleet has is zero operational experience. Their carriers are barely capable of peacetime air operations. You’re making the same mistake everyone made about the Russian army a year ago, big on numbers and big on hardware so big on threat. But all that hardware doesn’t do you much good if the actual soldiers (or seamen) have no idea how to function in an actual war.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
China has the world's 2nd largest navy, by any metric that makes sense. It's only the largest if you count the number of ships, counting every ship equally. Counting a small coastal patrol boat the same as an aircraft carrier is manifestly absurd. China currently has 3 aircraft carriers, only one of which is a "supercarrier" on par with American carriers. The US has 11 supercarriers. One could make similar comparisons with nuclear-powered submarines and many other types of ships. Overall tonnage is a better metric: the Chinese navy weighs about 1.3 tons, while the US navy weighs about 4.5 million tons. Of course, there are many other factors beyond this one-dimensional metric, but this nevertheless gives you an idea of the large gap between the US and Chinese navies. China is catching up with the US quickly, because of China's growing industrial might, but it will still take decades to reach full parity.

3 ms·

I have zero expertise in this area, but I did read an article earlier today suggesting that the bigger naval fleet almost always wins against a technically supe

by abrookewood 4y ago

simonh 4y ago
The problem the Chinese fleet has is zero operational experience. Their carriers are barely capable of peacetime air operations. You’re making the same mistake everyone made about the Russian army a year ago, big on numbers and big on hardware so big on threat. But all that hardware doesn’t do you much good if the actual soldiers (or seamen) have no idea how to function in an actual war.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
China has the world's 2nd largest navy, by any metric that makes sense. It's only the largest if you count the number of ships, counting every ship equally. Counting a small coastal patrol boat the same as an aircraft carrier is manifestly absurd. China currently has 3 aircraft carriers, only one of which is a "supercarrier" on par with American carriers. The US has 11 supercarriers. One could make similar comparisons with nuclear-powered submarines and many other types of ships. Overall tonnage is a better metric: the Chinese navy weighs about 1.3 tons, while the US navy weighs about 4.5 million tons. Of course, there are many other factors beyond this one-dimensional metric, but this nevertheless gives you an idea of the large gap between the US and Chinese navies. China is catching up with the US quickly, because of China's growing industrial might, but it will still take decades to reach full parity.