4 ms·

Wouldn't China be astronomically more deterred from invading Japan under any circumstances, given that it would lead to all out war with the US (wouldn't it?)

dirtyid 4y ago
>under any circumstances If the US is intervening in the TW scenario from JP, then it's already all out war and there's every reason to hit JP targets. Historically CCP/PRC has fought with the US, USSR and threatened the UK, all nuclear powers over redline issues much less important than TW, sometimes while PRC not nuclear power herself. IMO there is no astronomically deterring PRC when it comes to TW. PLA TW war planning for the last few years (post Xi's PLA modernization) pretty much assumes US and JP will be involved, she's already on the hit list, as are most US military infra in the 1st and 2nd island chain. Would not be surprised if US infra in AU as well. Final consideration is as the balance of backyard war swings increasingly in PRC favour, an all out war might be in PRC strategic interests. Ultimately that's what it takes to kick the US out of East Asia - destroy so much US hardware that she can't project even if she wanted to, and target an US security partner (JP) and kick her face in so hard that the region would not even consider hosting US forces after. The biggest reason why the region is not signing up for PRC containment is no one wants to be missile sinks for the TW scenario, the second TW card is off the table, the region is free to pivot and go all in on US security hedging. This is bad for the PRC in the long term. There are so many other geopolitical benefits of elimnating JP as a regional power as well.
- marstall 4y ago
  so Japan (and South Korea?) secretly want Taiwan to go China, because that will make it easier for them to be all-in on the American security umbrella?
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Regions interests best served by status quo first and foremost. Then a peaceful political resolution. Then a limited TW scenario that doesn't spread to the rest of the region. Lastly, broad regional war. Which could end in PRC defeat, which ruins regions economics and will ensure long term instability because PRC will try again. Or ends in US defeat which removes the US as a security hedge to balance PRC. Basically they want the least disruptive PRC-TW settlement, after which they (not just SKR/JP) can enhance US presence without TW damocles hanging over their heads.

dirtyid 4y ago

>under any circumstances If the US is intervening in the TW scenario from JP, then it's already all out war and there's every reason to hit JP targets. Historically CCP/PRC has fought with the US, USSR and threatened the UK, all nuclear powers over redline issues much less important than TW, sometimes while PRC not nuclear power herself. IMO there is no astronomically deterring PRC when it comes to TW. PLA TW war planning for the last few years (post Xi's PLA modernization) pretty much assumes US and JP will be involved, she's already on the hit list, as are most US military infra in the 1st and 2nd island chain. Would not be surprised if US infra in AU as well. Final consideration is as the balance of backyard war swings increasingly in PRC favour, an all out war might be in PRC strategic interests. Ultimately that's what it takes to kick the US out of East Asia - destroy so much US hardware that she can't project even if she wanted to, and target an US security partner (JP) and kick her face in so hard that the region would not even consider hosting US forces after. The biggest reason why the region is not signing up for PRC containment is no one wants to be missile sinks for the TW scenario, the second TW card is off the table, the region is free to pivot and go all in on US security hedging. This is bad for the PRC in the long term. There are so many other geopolitical benefits of elimnating JP as a regional power as well.

marstall 4y ago
so Japan (and South Korea?) secretly want Taiwan to go China, because that will make it easier for them to be all-in on the American security umbrella?
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Regions interests best served by status quo first and foremost. Then a peaceful political resolution. Then a limited TW scenario that doesn't spread to the rest of the region. Lastly, broad regional war. Which could end in PRC defeat, which ruins regions economics and will ensure long term instability because PRC will try again. Or ends in US defeat which removes the US as a security hedge to balance PRC. Basically they want the least disruptive PRC-TW settlement, after which they (not just SKR/JP) can enhance US presence without TW damocles hanging over their heads.