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The examples given for an AI catastrophe are not based on the real engine of social cohesion: the economy. The catastrophe must come, if it comes, as a result
by jschveibinz 4y ago
The examples given for an AI catastrophe are not based on the real engine of social cohesion: the economy. The catastrophe must come, if it comes, as a result of economic collapse.
Money has value because it is loosely tied to effort and scarcity.
Professionals—-those with high paying jobs based on unique skills, expertise and a lot of education and experience—-are the most vulnerable to AI disruption.
Professionals dominate the workforce. As of 2021, almost 60% of the workforce was classified as professional. That is a staggering 88 million jobs, at a rough average salary of $75K, or $6.6 trillion.
https://www.dpeaflcio.org/factsheets/the-professional-and-technical-workforce-by-the-numbers https://www.dpeaflcio.org/factsheets/the-professional-and-te...
If only 25% of high paying professionals were eliminated from the workforce as a result of AI disruption (I think this is conservative) over the next few years, that would account for a loss of almost $2 trillion in wages from the US economy alone. This would result in lost income for other service occupations, so the total economic impact could be several trillion dollars. The U.S. GDP is $25 trillion, so this could account for a 20-25% loss in GDP.
Routine recessions result in a GDP loss of 2%, and more severe recessions at up to 5%.
The Great Depressive saw a loss of 25-30% in GDP.
This is why I see the coming AI catastrophe as one of economics, and there is nothing stopping the AI freight train at the moment.