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A more recent example: Putin invaded Ukraine even though it was obvious to everyone outside Russia that it was a bad idea and the resulting sanctions would hurt

A more recent example: Putin invaded Ukraine even though it was obvious to everyone outside Russia that it was a bad idea and the resulting sanctions would hurt Russia even if he won. World leaders are generally logical within the bounds of their incentives -- and China's incentives are probably such that an invasion of Taiwan makes more sense to them than it does to outside observers.

Apocryphon 4y ago
An invasion of Taiwan would also be much more expensive and difficult than a land invasion, and unprecedented for China to boot. Russia conducted a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and seized Crimea long before 2022. China has also not fought a recent war- even prior to the war in the Donbas, Russia had already invaded Georgia. So it's not necessarily as easy a mistake to make, with different cost-benefit calculations.
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
I'm not sure it was so obvious that it was a bad idea. I for one expected Russia to roll Ukraine; I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't happen that way. But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it?
- twblalock 4y ago
  > But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it? That is what makes it a bad idea. Almost everyone expected Russia to win quickly. But even if they did win, all the things you mentioned would offset whatever they would gain from their victory. Putin was probably hoping that the EU would not be willing to go without Russian gas after the war had ended -- and maybe that would have been true, but there would still be other sanctions, other countries joining NATO, etc.

Apocryphon 4y ago

An invasion of Taiwan would also be much more expensive and difficult than a land invasion, and unprecedented for China to boot. Russia conducted a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and seized Crimea long before 2022. China has also not fought a recent war- even prior to the war in the Donbas, Russia had already invaded Georgia. So it's not necessarily as easy a mistake to make, with different cost-benefit calculations.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

I'm not sure it was so obvious that it was a bad idea. I for one expected Russia to roll Ukraine; I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't happen that way. But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it?

twblalock 4y ago
> But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it? That is what makes it a bad idea. Almost everyone expected Russia to win quickly. But even if they did win, all the things you mentioned would offset whatever they would gain from their victory. Putin was probably hoping that the EU would not be willing to go without Russian gas after the war had ended -- and maybe that would have been true, but there would still be other sanctions, other countries joining NATO, etc.