You never know, do you, if "the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different"? You can't ever nail that down to a degree of accur

You never know, do you, if "the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different"? You can't ever nail that down to a degree of accuracy that'd actually be pluggable into a formula (bayesian analysis users have a real hard time applying credible intervals IMO), so you have to guess, and the article's point (IMO) is that many people guess too conservatively to reality, that more often than is intuitive there's a larger benefit of moving on than in sticking with the familiar, and it happens earlier than is intuitive.