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In the context of quitting something successful, why would you? As long as the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different (but p

In the context of quitting something successful, why would you? As long as the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different (but potentially of higher risk), why not keep going? I understand the concept of the Sunk Cost fallacy, but the article is describing things that are actually successful! Maybe from the consumer's perspective, it seems bad that this thing you once loved is now mainstream or banal, but they can always quit consuming based on personal preference. For instance, as the audience, I want all shows to be three seasons and a movie. As at the producer, I would milking a good idea to its last drop.

SpeedilyDamage 4y ago
You never know, do you, if "the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different"? You can't ever nail that down to a degree of accuracy that'd actually be pluggable into a formula (bayesian analysis users have a real hard time applying credible intervals IMO), so you have to guess, and the article's point (IMO) is that many people guess too conservatively to reality, that more often than is intuitive there's a larger benefit of moving on than in sticking with the familiar, and it happens earlier than is intuitive.
OJFord 4y ago
Well, an 'exit' (!!) is a great time to, financially. Your compensation that year is going to dwarf next, presumably. (Perhaps unless acqui-hired by FAANG.) Yet the company (unless bought out to shut down) presumably warrants being called 'successful'. Even if not for a raise, it's a good time to move on to another start-up and hope to repeat, financially.
JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
> > In the context of quitting something successful, why would you? At some point people get tired of playing Stairway to Heaven for the 1300th time, even if you are the guys who wrote Stairway to Heaven. They want to drive a Ferrari through the Cork Screw corner in Laguna Seca or buy an apartment in Central Park West instead.
- fuzzfactor 4y ago
  Years after Led Zeppelin had broken up for good, Page & Plant went on tour as a new band and there were to be none of their Led Zeppelin material performed. A number of years later they toured again and this time threw in a lot of Led Zep classics. Looked (and sounded) like they had overall quit Zep while ahead, proven themselves doing something different, then later reprising what they liked best on their own more mature terms.

SpeedilyDamage 4y ago

You never know, do you, if "the marginal benefit meets or exceeds the benefit of doing something different"? You can't ever nail that down to a degree of accuracy that'd actually be pluggable into a formula (bayesian analysis users have a real hard time applying credible intervals IMO), so you have to guess, and the article's point (IMO) is that many people guess too conservatively to reality, that more often than is intuitive there's a larger benefit of moving on than in sticking with the familiar, and it happens earlier than is intuitive.

OJFord 4y ago

Well, an 'exit' (!!) is a great time to, financially. Your compensation that year is going to dwarf next, presumably. (Perhaps unless acqui-hired by FAANG.) Yet the company (unless bought out to shut down) presumably warrants being called 'successful'. Even if not for a raise, it's a good time to move on to another start-up and hope to repeat, financially.

JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago

> > In the context of quitting something successful, why would you? At some point people get tired of playing Stairway to Heaven for the 1300th time, even if you are the guys who wrote Stairway to Heaven. They want to drive a Ferrari through the Cork Screw corner in Laguna Seca or buy an apartment in Central Park West instead.

fuzzfactor 4y ago
Years after Led Zeppelin had broken up for good, Page & Plant went on tour as a new band and there were to be none of their Led Zeppelin material performed. A number of years later they toured again and this time threw in a lot of Led Zep classics. Looked (and sounded) like they had overall quit Zep while ahead, proven themselves doing something different, then later reprising what they liked best on their own more mature terms.