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A really good book on this topic I recently read: Quit, by Annie Duke. The book boils down to "Calculate EV of your decision, try not to fall prey to sunk cost
by Swizec 4y ago
A really good book on this topic I recently read: Quit, by Annie Duke.
The book boils down to "Calculate EV of your decision, try not to fall prey to sunk cost fallacy". But it makes the lesson really sink in which is nice.
My favorite bit was her sharing the research that you cannot avoid sunk cost fallacy. Humans don't work that way it seems. What you can do instead is to pre-commit to quitting when certain conditions are met.
- throwaway98797 4y agothe point of life isn’t to avoid all fallacies the point of life is whatever you make it for most a focus on rigid logical thinking is a recipe for doom
- Swizec 4y agoShe argues for including emotional factors in the EV calculation. "Will this make me feel good" is a question of value. An example she uses is a person who's miserable at their job and is trying to decide whether to take a job offer. They know they'll be miserable without changing jobs, but taking the new job might feel better. Therefore you should change jobs because the expected value of changing is higher than the expected value of staying.
- JacobDotVI 4y agoFirst Round had a good podcast episode with her about the book: https://overcast.fm/+k1HEhCB1U https://overcast.fm/+k1HEhCB1U