This piece was also written during Tanner Greer's "Taiwan can win a war with china" period, he's gotten considerably less stupid / ignorant now. Even during 202

This piece was also written during Tanner Greer's "Taiwan can win a war with china" period, he's gotten considerably less stupid / ignorant now. Even during 2020, PRC didn't need Taiwan to completely destroy Japan. IRBMs to energy import terminal and other critical infra can turn JP into Yemen over night. So it wouldn't even matter if JP shipping reroutes, simple reality as PRC antishipping, and various space infra improvces, the A2AD bubble will cover JP, making JP shipping perenially vunerable to PRC attack going forward. Taiwan doesn't substantially improve JPs home island defense, most of which are closer to PLA mainland basing anyways. If anything Taiwan island can still be kept in check by Ryukyu islands. Then and now, worst case scenario for JP is US loses so much assets in TW scenario it can no longer defend JP. The TLDR should be even fighing potentially pyrrhic battle over TW may lose JP. TBH almost anything Greer wrote pre 2021 that has assumptions based on military balance / capabilities is not worth taking seriously.