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This chap does presentations on military logistics with a side of Aussie humour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5
by jemmyw 4y ago
This chap does presentations on military logistics with a side of Aussie humour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 and tackled China. In short, you're probably not correct. China has had a better military than Russia for some time. They've been building up, they have more money, more discipline, improving or better technology, an actual build up plan that makes sense, less corruption.
On the other hand you're right that if they invade Taiwan it won't just be a one sided war where they waltz in.
A big difference though is that many people suspect Russia had very bad pre-war intel, driven by corruption, that led them to believe they had a lot more support and local allies on the ground than they did. I do not think that China will make a similar mistake - they will invade when they think they can win.
The best thing the west can do is make sure they never think they can win.
- Apocryphon 4y agoChina has also not fought an actual war since their tussle with the Vietnamese in 1979, so really hard to say how the modern PLA would actually perform in a conflict. Seems rather overambitious to go from zero to D-Day-esque massive naval operation.
- Balgair 4y agoBig Schlieffen Plan vibes coming out of China at Taiwan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan Curiously, Clausewitz (drink!) knew better and yet it still didn't stop Germany from their love of plans and order. Even with a world of techno-gadgetry, I don't see the Taiwan Plan will go any different than Schlieffen's. Friction always wins
- jemmyw 4y agoThey don't have to deal with quite the same level of complexity though. There's no railway calculation and no intermediate states. And while I hope if they try they fail, I hope more they never try. It would be a disastrous loss of life for nothing but the pride of the CCP.
- midoridensha 4y agoAs we've seen over and over in history, including as recent as last year, countless men are perfectly happy to throw their lives away in a meatgrinder for someone's pride.