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Exactly, like in 1914 when the Austro-Hungarian empire and the German Empire were the worlds 2nd and 3rd leading exporters of electrical appliances, and had thi

Exactly, like in 1914 when the Austro-Hungarian empire and the German Empire were the worlds 2nd and 3rd leading exporters of electrical appliances, and had this massive trade network where German goods were going all over Europe, financed by English capital. No country would be stupid enough to bring all that crashing down because some stupid nationalist dispute in the Balkans, that would be idiotic and stupid. Clearly people are to rational for that.

Apocryphon 4y ago
It would be certainly be a stupid thing to do so after the precedence of the Great War is already firmly entrenched in everyone's imaginations, not to mention the advent of nuclear weapons, which makes outright open warfare between the great powers a historical memory thus far (which also explains why the U.S. is fighting a proxy war rather than an actual war in Ukraine).
- SllX 4y ago
  Wars continue to happen for even dumber reasons; they just rarely involve the largest nations clashing anymore. If you’re betting on human rationality over time in the hands of people with a lot of centralized power, you’re making the losing bet. There’s a reason people were genuinely afraid of nuclear war (and still should continue to be): if it happens, it will involve very few people and there will be nothing any one of the billion’s of others can do about it. There is a solution: the dispersal of power tends to work well; but the risk you run up against is charismatic individuals acting as a locus for a majority’s power, so you also need anti-majoritarian institutions and a culture that values them. Hard to get all three.
- kneebonian 4y ago
  You're right it would be a stupid idea for Russia to march on Germany, given the precedence of the Napoleonic Wars that killed so many. Not to mention the advent of chemical weapons and high powered artillery which makes outright open warfare between the great powers a historical memory thus far (which also explains why the Russians are fighting a proxy war rather than an actual war in Serbia)
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    It wasn't stupid at all, Russia wanted to maintain its buffer states against the Austrians and the Ottomans, as well as retaining vital passage through the Dardanelles. They also wanted to help the Sick Man of Europe along to his demise, and they were right- the Ottoman Empire did fall; it's just they went along for the ride.
    - kneebonian 4y ago
      I don't think you know as much about history as you think you do the Ottomans didn't enter the war until late 1914 long after they had marched on Germany. Of which there were no buffer states at the time between them and Russia. Futher the Ottomans were the ones who attacked Russia first, after the war had already gone on several months. Russian involvement with Germany had almost nothing to do with Eastern European political ambitions and everything to do with the treaty between Russia and France guarenteeing Russia's protection of France in the event of conflict with Germany. Russia only got involved, not out of a desire to beat down Austria-Hungry but to protect Serbia, which had an implicit promise of protection from Russia, against the Austro-Hungarians. Russia's only major gain from the great war was ever going to be the squashing of German power before it could challenge Russia in the East, and turned out to be the biggest mistake in Russian history.
      - Apocryphon 4y ago
        Don't tell me that, take it up with the accepted answer I'm parroting here https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/35758/why-did-russia-support-serbia-in-the-years-leading-to-world-war-i https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/35758/why-did-ru...
      - foobarian 4y ago
        I mean it’s not like the Austrohungarians were angels; didn’t they annex Bosnia just before (and upset the Serbians quite a bit who then reiterated the need for help...)
twblalock 4y ago
A more recent example: Putin invaded Ukraine even though it was obvious to everyone outside Russia that it was a bad idea and the resulting sanctions would hurt Russia even if he won. World leaders are generally logical within the bounds of their incentives -- and China's incentives are probably such that an invasion of Taiwan makes more sense to them than it does to outside observers.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  An invasion of Taiwan would also be much more expensive and difficult than a land invasion, and unprecedented for China to boot. Russia conducted a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and seized Crimea long before 2022. China has also not fought a recent war- even prior to the war in the Donbas, Russia had already invaded Georgia. So it's not necessarily as easy a mistake to make, with different cost-benefit calculations.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  I'm not sure it was so obvious that it was a bad idea. I for one expected Russia to roll Ukraine; I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't happen that way. But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it?
  - twblalock 4y ago
    > But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it? That is what makes it a bad idea. Almost everyone expected Russia to win quickly. But even if they did win, all the things you mentioned would offset whatever they would gain from their victory. Putin was probably hoping that the EU would not be willing to go without Russian gas after the war had ended -- and maybe that would have been true, but there would still be other sanctions, other countries joining NATO, etc.

Apocryphon 4y ago

It would be certainly be a stupid thing to do so after the precedence of the Great War is already firmly entrenched in everyone's imaginations, not to mention the advent of nuclear weapons, which makes outright open warfare between the great powers a historical memory thus far (which also explains why the U.S. is fighting a proxy war rather than an actual war in Ukraine).

SllX 4y ago
Wars continue to happen for even dumber reasons; they just rarely involve the largest nations clashing anymore. If you’re betting on human rationality over time in the hands of people with a lot of centralized power, you’re making the losing bet. There’s a reason people were genuinely afraid of nuclear war (and still should continue to be): if it happens, it will involve very few people and there will be nothing any one of the billion’s of others can do about it. There is a solution: the dispersal of power tends to work well; but the risk you run up against is charismatic individuals acting as a locus for a majority’s power, so you also need anti-majoritarian institutions and a culture that values them. Hard to get all three.
kneebonian 4y ago
You're right it would be a stupid idea for Russia to march on Germany, given the precedence of the Napoleonic Wars that killed so many. Not to mention the advent of chemical weapons and high powered artillery which makes outright open warfare between the great powers a historical memory thus far (which also explains why the Russians are fighting a proxy war rather than an actual war in Serbia)
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  It wasn't stupid at all, Russia wanted to maintain its buffer states against the Austrians and the Ottomans, as well as retaining vital passage through the Dardanelles. They also wanted to help the Sick Man of Europe along to his demise, and they were right- the Ottoman Empire did fall; it's just they went along for the ride.
  - kneebonian 4y ago
    I don't think you know as much about history as you think you do the Ottomans didn't enter the war until late 1914 long after they had marched on Germany. Of which there were no buffer states at the time between them and Russia. Futher the Ottomans were the ones who attacked Russia first, after the war had already gone on several months. Russian involvement with Germany had almost nothing to do with Eastern European political ambitions and everything to do with the treaty between Russia and France guarenteeing Russia's protection of France in the event of conflict with Germany. Russia only got involved, not out of a desire to beat down Austria-Hungry but to protect Serbia, which had an implicit promise of protection from Russia, against the Austro-Hungarians. Russia's only major gain from the great war was ever going to be the squashing of German power before it could challenge Russia in the East, and turned out to be the biggest mistake in Russian history.
    - Apocryphon 4y ago
      Don't tell me that, take it up with the accepted answer I'm parroting here https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/35758/why-did-russia-support-serbia-in-the-years-leading-to-world-war-i https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/35758/why-did-ru...
    - foobarian 4y ago
      I mean it’s not like the Austrohungarians were angels; didn’t they annex Bosnia just before (and upset the Serbians quite a bit who then reiterated the need for help...)

twblalock 4y ago

A more recent example: Putin invaded Ukraine even though it was obvious to everyone outside Russia that it was a bad idea and the resulting sanctions would hurt Russia even if he won. World leaders are generally logical within the bounds of their incentives -- and China's incentives are probably such that an invasion of Taiwan makes more sense to them than it does to outside observers.

Apocryphon 4y ago
An invasion of Taiwan would also be much more expensive and difficult than a land invasion, and unprecedented for China to boot. Russia conducted a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and seized Crimea long before 2022. China has also not fought a recent war- even prior to the war in the Donbas, Russia had already invaded Georgia. So it's not necessarily as easy a mistake to make, with different cost-benefit calculations.
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
I'm not sure it was so obvious that it was a bad idea. I for one expected Russia to roll Ukraine; I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't happen that way. But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it?
- twblalock 4y ago
  > But even if it did... did Putin think that there would be no sanctions? Did he think that Finland and Sweden would not see this as their cue to join NATO? Did he think that the rest of the world would just sit there and ignore it? That is what makes it a bad idea. Almost everyone expected Russia to win quickly. But even if they did win, all the things you mentioned would offset whatever they would gain from their victory. Putin was probably hoping that the EU would not be willing to go without Russian gas after the war had ended -- and maybe that would have been true, but there would still be other sanctions, other countries joining NATO, etc.