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The war in Ukraine should make it clear to everyone that China is militarily weak compared to a country outfitted with current generation western arms. Ukraine

by 99_00 4y ago

The war in Ukraine should make it clear to everyone that China is militarily weak compared to a country outfitted with current generation western arms. Ukraine didn't even have a modern air force, but they were able to beat back Russia. Militarily, there should be no reason for the world not to step up and support Taiwan China's military is rated as weaker than Russia's. It is modeled after Russias. It has much less combat experience. An invasion of Taiwan is much more difficult than an invasion of Ukraine. Economically, the world needs to continue to decouple from China. Unfortunately they aren't our friends.

jemmyw 4y ago
This chap does presentations on military logistics with a side of Aussie humour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 and tackled China. In short, you're probably not correct. China has had a better military than Russia for some time. They've been building up, they have more money, more discipline, improving or better technology, an actual build up plan that makes sense, less corruption. On the other hand you're right that if they invade Taiwan it won't just be a one sided war where they waltz in. A big difference though is that many people suspect Russia had very bad pre-war intel, driven by corruption, that led them to believe they had a lot more support and local allies on the ground than they did. I do not think that China will make a similar mistake - they will invade when they think they can win. The best thing the west can do is make sure they never think they can win.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  China has also not fought an actual war since their tussle with the Vietnamese in 1979, so really hard to say how the modern PLA would actually perform in a conflict. Seems rather overambitious to go from zero to D-Day-esque massive naval operation.
  - Balgair 4y ago
    Big Schlieffen Plan vibes coming out of China at Taiwan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan Curiously, Clausewitz (drink!) knew better and yet it still didn't stop Germany from their love of plans and order. Even with a world of techno-gadgetry, I don't see the Taiwan Plan will go any different than Schlieffen's. Friction always wins
    - jemmyw 4y ago
      They don't have to deal with quite the same level of complexity though. There's no railway calculation and no intermediate states. And while I hope if they try they fail, I hope more they never try. It would be a disastrous loss of life for nothing but the pride of the CCP.
      - midoridensha 4y ago
        As we've seen over and over in history, including as recent as last year, countless men are perfectly happy to throw their lives away in a meatgrinder for someone's pride.
deleted 4y ago
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SkyMarshal 4y ago
I don't know how China's military could be rated as weaker than Russia's or by whom, but that can't be inaccurate, unless you're including nukes, which Russia has far more of. I could see China's army perhaps being weaker, but even then I doubt it given how piss poor Russia's army has turned out to be. But both China's Navy and Air Force are far larger, better equipped, and more capable than Russia's. And those are the primary forces involved in attacking Taiwan.
- 99_00 4y ago
  https://googlethatforyou.com?q=most%20powerful%20military%20in%20the%20world https://googlethatforyou.com?q=most%20powerful%20military%20...
ElectricalUnion 4y ago
> China is militarily weak compared to a country outfitted with current generation western arms. So who has the funding and the manufaturing capabilities and stockpiles of those current generation western arms? Not a lot of countries, not a lot of manufaturing capabilities, not a lot of stock around. I'm surprised how a attack by what is supposed to be an "half-assed", "crazy person" with "incompetent and low-tech army" can strain current generation western arms supply chains as is.
- 99_00 4y ago
  Supply chain strain during war is normal. It's war.

by 99_00 4y ago

jemmyw 4y ago

This chap does presentations on military logistics with a side of Aussie humour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH5TlcMo_m4 and tackled China. In short, you're probably not correct. China has had a better military than Russia for some time. They've been building up, they have more money, more discipline, improving or better technology, an actual build up plan that makes sense, less corruption. On the other hand you're right that if they invade Taiwan it won't just be a one sided war where they waltz in. A big difference though is that many people suspect Russia had very bad pre-war intel, driven by corruption, that led them to believe they had a lot more support and local allies on the ground than they did. I do not think that China will make a similar mistake - they will invade when they think they can win. The best thing the west can do is make sure they never think they can win.

Apocryphon 4y ago
China has also not fought an actual war since their tussle with the Vietnamese in 1979, so really hard to say how the modern PLA would actually perform in a conflict. Seems rather overambitious to go from zero to D-Day-esque massive naval operation.
- Balgair 4y ago
  Big Schlieffen Plan vibes coming out of China at Taiwan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan Curiously, Clausewitz (drink!) knew better and yet it still didn't stop Germany from their love of plans and order. Even with a world of techno-gadgetry, I don't see the Taiwan Plan will go any different than Schlieffen's. Friction always wins
  - jemmyw 4y ago
    They don't have to deal with quite the same level of complexity though. There's no railway calculation and no intermediate states. And while I hope if they try they fail, I hope more they never try. It would be a disastrous loss of life for nothing but the pride of the CCP.
    - midoridensha 4y ago
      As we've seen over and over in history, including as recent as last year, countless men are perfectly happy to throw their lives away in a meatgrinder for someone's pride.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

SkyMarshal 4y ago

I don't know how China's military could be rated as weaker than Russia's or by whom, but that can't be inaccurate, unless you're including nukes, which Russia has far more of. I could see China's army perhaps being weaker, but even then I doubt it given how piss poor Russia's army has turned out to be. But both China's Navy and Air Force are far larger, better equipped, and more capable than Russia's. And those are the primary forces involved in attacking Taiwan.

99_00 4y ago
https://googlethatforyou.com?q=most%20powerful%20military%20in%20the%20world https://googlethatforyou.com?q=most%20powerful%20military%20...

ElectricalUnion 4y ago

> China is militarily weak compared to a country outfitted with current generation western arms. So who has the funding and the manufaturing capabilities and stockpiles of those current generation western arms? Not a lot of countries, not a lot of manufaturing capabilities, not a lot of stock around. I'm surprised how a attack by what is supposed to be an "half-assed", "crazy person" with "incompetent and low-tech army" can strain current generation western arms supply chains as is.

99_00 4y ago
Supply chain strain during war is normal. It's war.