4 ms·

This article is from February 2020, so it should be contextualized in the fact that it was written prior to the Ukraine War. Greer's most recent Taiwan essay i

This article is from February 2020, so it should be contextualized in the fact that it was written prior to the Ukraine War. Greer's most recent Taiwan essay is here: https://scholars-stage.org/we-can-only-kick-taiwan-down-the-road-so-far/ https://scholars-stage.org/we-can-only-kick-taiwan-down-the-...

SkyMarshal 4y ago
Those are two very different articles. Yours is all about Taiwan and US policy, but the OP is all about Japan. OP explains and shows how China taking Taiwan could enable the PLAN to strangle Japan's major shipping lanes, crash the Japanese economy, shut down the industry Japan needs for resupply in a war against China, and potentially even cause a famine in Japan. None of that has changed since it was published.
- remarkEon 4y ago
  Sure. I'm merely pointing out a timeline here. Edit: I don't mean to dismiss your argument that things with regard to Japan have not changed since then. Reasonable people can disagree on if that's true or not (I think you're mostly right).
dirtyid 4y ago
This piece was also written during Tanner Greer's "Taiwan can win a war with china" period, he's gotten considerably less stupid / ignorant now. Even during 2020, PRC didn't need Taiwan to completely destroy Japan. IRBMs to energy import terminal and other critical infra can turn JP into Yemen over night. So it wouldn't even matter if JP shipping reroutes, simple reality as PRC antishipping, and various space infra improvces, the A2AD bubble will cover JP, making JP shipping perenially vunerable to PRC attack going forward. Taiwan doesn't substantially improve JPs home island defense, most of which are closer to PLA mainland basing anyways. If anything Taiwan island can still be kept in check by Ryukyu islands. Then and now, worst case scenario for JP is US loses so much assets in TW scenario it can no longer defend JP. The TLDR should be even fighing potentially pyrrhic battle over TW may lose JP. TBH almost anything Greer wrote pre 2021 that has assumptions based on military balance / capabilities is not worth taking seriously.

SkyMarshal 4y ago

Those are two very different articles. Yours is all about Taiwan and US policy, but the OP is all about Japan. OP explains and shows how China taking Taiwan could enable the PLAN to strangle Japan's major shipping lanes, crash the Japanese economy, shut down the industry Japan needs for resupply in a war against China, and potentially even cause a famine in Japan. None of that has changed since it was published.

remarkEon 4y ago
Sure. I'm merely pointing out a timeline here. Edit: I don't mean to dismiss your argument that things with regard to Japan have not changed since then. Reasonable people can disagree on if that's true or not (I think you're mostly right).

dirtyid 4y ago

This piece was also written during Tanner Greer's "Taiwan can win a war with china" period, he's gotten considerably less stupid / ignorant now. Even during 2020, PRC didn't need Taiwan to completely destroy Japan. IRBMs to energy import terminal and other critical infra can turn JP into Yemen over night. So it wouldn't even matter if JP shipping reroutes, simple reality as PRC antishipping, and various space infra improvces, the A2AD bubble will cover JP, making JP shipping perenially vunerable to PRC attack going forward. Taiwan doesn't substantially improve JPs home island defense, most of which are closer to PLA mainland basing anyways. If anything Taiwan island can still be kept in check by Ryukyu islands. Then and now, worst case scenario for JP is US loses so much assets in TW scenario it can no longer defend JP. The TLDR should be even fighing potentially pyrrhic battle over TW may lose JP. TBH almost anything Greer wrote pre 2021 that has assumptions based on military balance / capabilities is not worth taking seriously.