3 ms·

Especially when you don't have a real navy.

ianburrell 4y ago
The PLAN has gotten much better. They have started building a proper aircraft carrier. They have been building good destroyers. China has the second best navy in the world. The problem is that it isn't enough for amphibious invasion of Japan or Taiwan. They don't have enough amphibious ships. And the ships would be very vulnerable to anti-ship missiles. Truck-mounted anti-ship missiles, which Japan has a bunch and Taiwan should be buying, have changed things. The other thing that has made amphibious invasion infeasible are multiple rocket launchers, like HIMARS given to Ukraine, which can wipe out an entire beachhead.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  This prior comment, which is probably hyperbolic, always stuck with me: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 > Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park. > I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard. > PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.
  - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
    Don't forget 50 years of constant combat experience :) The last time China fought anyone it was us.. in Korea.. with M14s.
    - Apocryphon 4y ago
      For all of the invocations of Putin in this discussion, Russia already intervened in Ukraine less than a decade ago with their Little Green Men, and they were recently present in Syria. Never mind their invasion of Georgia and the Chechen Wars. Much more combat experience than the modern PLA.
      - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
        Yes, I think the PLA is a paper tiger.

The PLAN has gotten much better. They have started building a proper aircraft carrier. They have been building good destroyers. China has the second best navy in the world. The problem is that it isn't enough for amphibious invasion of Japan or Taiwan. They don't have enough amphibious ships. And the ships would be very vulnerable to anti-ship missiles. Truck-mounted anti-ship missiles, which Japan has a bunch and Taiwan should be buying, have changed things. The other thing that has made amphibious invasion infeasible are multiple rocket launchers, like HIMARS given to Ukraine, which can wipe out an entire beachhead.

Apocryphon 4y ago
This prior comment, which is probably hyperbolic, always stuck with me: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 > Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park. > I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard. > PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.
- amalgamated_inc 4y ago
  Don't forget 50 years of constant combat experience :) The last time China fought anyone it was us.. in Korea.. with M14s.
  - Apocryphon 4y ago
    For all of the invocations of Putin in this discussion, Russia already intervened in Ukraine less than a decade ago with their Little Green Men, and they were recently present in Syria. Never mind their invasion of Georgia and the Chechen Wars. Much more combat experience than the modern PLA.
    - amalgamated_inc 4y ago
      Yes, I think the PLA is a paper tiger.