4 ms·

China was fully committed to zero Covid until protests started happening, then it was scrapped in no time flat. And 2050 is just conveniently far enough away fo

by qzw 4y ago

China was fully committed to zero Covid until protests started happening, then it was scrapped in no time flat. And 2050 is just conveniently far enough away for it sound politically serious and yet have basically no need for actual immediate action.

beebmam 4y ago
It's common to see a correlation and assume causation. There are many other reasons for the abandonment of zero covid. The WHO claims that zero covid was no longer working before it was scrapped.
SkyMarshal 4y ago
2050 (2049 actually) is the 100yr anniversary of the CCP's takever of China and the founding of the PRC. That's why it's the target date, they want to complete reunification before then. However, there is some speculation that the CCP observed from the 1989 Tienneman massacre that the West takes roughly 20yrs to forget stuff like that, so the CCP actually wants to reunify Taiwan by 2030, so it will be forgotten by 2050. Hence the rapid military buildup happening now.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  There is talk about a 2027 date by U.S. defense analysts, which might just be a lot of bad misinterpretations: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939
  - SkyMarshal 4y ago
    Yeah there's fear it could be even sooner, because the Arleigh Burke destroyer fleet has reached the end of its hull life and is being retired, but there will be a gap of a few years before it's replaced by the new destroyer design. There's a vid on youtube about this I can't find atm, an interview with a Navy vet Congresswoman concerned about the "missile gap", when the US Navy is at its smallest fleet size and deployed missile quantity over the next few years. China may assess their best chance at retaking Taiwan is during that gap, before US shipbuilding ramps up to close it. She's trying to convince the DoD to extend the Burkes service life until the new destroyers start coming off the production lines.
    - ianburrell 4y ago
      The Arleigh Burkes were built from 1991 to today. The Flight I are getting close to retirement and Navy decided not to extend service life. But that means only handful will be retired before replacement class is are ready. If it was a problem, or the replacement class is delayed, then they can order more Flight III.

by qzw 4y ago

beebmam 4y ago

It's common to see a correlation and assume causation. There are many other reasons for the abandonment of zero covid. The WHO claims that zero covid was no longer working before it was scrapped.

SkyMarshal 4y ago

2050 (2049 actually) is the 100yr anniversary of the CCP's takever of China and the founding of the PRC. That's why it's the target date, they want to complete reunification before then. However, there is some speculation that the CCP observed from the 1989 Tienneman massacre that the West takes roughly 20yrs to forget stuff like that, so the CCP actually wants to reunify Taiwan by 2030, so it will be forgotten by 2050. Hence the rapid military buildup happening now.

Apocryphon 4y ago
There is talk about a 2027 date by U.S. defense analysts, which might just be a lot of bad misinterpretations: https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939 https://twitter.com/MikeBlack114/status/1571401031539367939
- SkyMarshal 4y ago
  Yeah there's fear it could be even sooner, because the Arleigh Burke destroyer fleet has reached the end of its hull life and is being retired, but there will be a gap of a few years before it's replaced by the new destroyer design. There's a vid on youtube about this I can't find atm, an interview with a Navy vet Congresswoman concerned about the "missile gap", when the US Navy is at its smallest fleet size and deployed missile quantity over the next few years. China may assess their best chance at retaking Taiwan is during that gap, before US shipbuilding ramps up to close it. She's trying to convince the DoD to extend the Burkes service life until the new destroyers start coming off the production lines.
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    The Arleigh Burkes were built from 1991 to today. The Flight I are getting close to retirement and Navy decided not to extend service life. But that means only handful will be retired before replacement class is are ready. If it was a problem, or the replacement class is delayed, then they can order more Flight III.