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This is "obviously" based on... no communication whatsoever from the company yet. Another comment of yours says "quite obvious" about advertising, which doesn'

This is "obviously" based on... no communication whatsoever from the company yet. Another comment of yours says "quite obvious" about advertising, which doesn't seem to be an industry segment in which you work. It seems your observations are right in line with Twitter's new owner, to whom everything that's happened over the last few months has also been "obvious," and mostly wrong.

adam_arthur 4y ago
Yes, Elon who made Tesla and SpaceX some of the largest companies in the world in just a few years, and likely many more over the next two decades is a totally incompetent buffoon. I’d rather take his side than the small minded and intellectually weak detractors. Just because things tend to be a certain way, doesn’t make it optimal or right. Evidence, all of history where bad practices were pervasive and common and later usurped by better practices. Maybe use forethought and critical thinking rather than credentialism and groupthink
- anotherman554 4y ago
  If Elon is mismanaging Twitter your post would be a good example of the cognitive bias called the Halo effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    To say that somebody’s success at tasks that are highly correlated with a separate task is irrelevant is simply wrong. And people who tend to succeed at most things they do, tend to do so for a reason. It’s effectively statistically impossible for it to be sheer coincidence/luck. Or should I just pick random “logical fallacy” links to put in my replies instead?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - anotherman554 4y ago
      If a baseball teams wins their first four games and you see them in the seventh inning behind by 30 points in game 5, when you predict game 5's winner is the relevant correlation how the team did in games 1 to 4 or is the relevant correlation how a team who is that far behind a particular game tends to do? I simply noted you appear incapable of perceiving Elon as making bad decisions, which is kind of funny, since he seemed to think agreeing to buy Twitter was a bad decision, and was in the process of losing a court case about it before he saw the writing on the wall and closed the agreement. If he actually is making bad decisions, I think the halo effect is at play.
- _zzaw 4y ago
  The level of nastiness in your comments here makes it very hard to take you seriously as an "objective" observer. Considering that you're using your HN profile to attract clients—"Hire me for your development needs!"—you might want to tone that down. I wouldn't want to work with anyone who thought it was appropriate to behave that way. (And I'll say your rosy impression of Twitter seems a little strange for a supposedly objective observer, given the recent outages/pervasive legal problems/chaotic feature rollouts/various fits and reversals/overall dysfunction that has characterized that company since it was acquired by Elon Musk.)
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    Nothing nasty about my comment, its a factual response to the parent comment. Fortunately I couldn’t care less if somebody decides not to work with me because they disagree with my opinions. People who care about results will get ahead, those that don’t won’t
    - pwinnski 4y ago
      > ... small minded and intellectually weak detractors. ... Maybe use forethought and critical thinking ... > Nothing nasty about my comment, its a factual response to the parent comment. I called out your use of the word "obviously" without factual basis, and you responded with insults. Insults and praise for the CEO of Twitter, which is irrelevant, since he still has not made any statement whatsoever on the subject, which was entirely the point of my initial comment.
- cmorgan31 4y ago
  You just used an appeal to Elons other companies while telling others to not use credentialism?
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    Actions that drives results aren’t credentials, they’re evidence. Saying you have a degree in this or that, or title X/Y without having any results to show for it is credentialism. Unfortunately far too pervasive in our industry.
    - cmorgan31 4y ago
      Ah you don’t value the outputs the same so you want to allow appeals to authority as long as it’s shown profitable outcomes. I’m on the same page now.
      - adam_arthur 4y ago
        Yes, somebody building multiple of the world’s largest companies is a much higher hurdle than getting a degree or mid level manager job title. By your logic we can’t consider any accomplishments from somebody’s past as a reliable indicator of their future results. Which is obviously not true. “Credentialism” is giving far too much weight to low barrier to entry and easy to accomplish titles. Ignoring past results, the fact that Twitter is functioning fine after 80% layoffs has already validated the decision to downsize. No need to look to the past.
- ReflectedImage 4y ago
  "Elon who made Tesla and SpaceX some of the largest companies in the world in just a few years," What in earth are you talking about? He brought his way into those companies. I think you are confusing Elon Musk the fictional PR character who exists only in paid press releases with Elon Musk. Elon Musk's success was being the CEO of a slimy payment processor.
  - sleepybrett 4y ago
    your forgot '... until he was shown the door.' on that last sentence.
- pwinnski 4y ago
  I didn't say he was an incompetent buffoon, you did. I think it's more true than not, but those are your words, not mine. I said only that he was frequently certain while being wrong. When he makes a pronouncement and then reverses that pronouncement, one or the other was incontrovertibly wrong. Whether he was wrong first and right later, or right first and wrong later, the list of reversals at twitter is a long one, starting before he bought the company. He tendered an offer that skipped due diligence, then attempted to avoid doing what he'd agree to do, invoking the due diligence he'd explicitly skipped in the process. Then they day before he would have to open up his financial records in court, he reversed his reversal and closed the deal. Since then he's stated multiple times he regrets buying twitter. However many times you count him being certain-but-wrong in that story, it's more than zero, despite the financial success of his unrelated companies, and despite your unwarranted personal insults.

adam_arthur 4y ago

Yes, Elon who made Tesla and SpaceX some of the largest companies in the world in just a few years, and likely many more over the next two decades is a totally incompetent buffoon. I’d rather take his side than the small minded and intellectually weak detractors. Just because things tend to be a certain way, doesn’t make it optimal or right. Evidence, all of history where bad practices were pervasive and common and later usurped by better practices. Maybe use forethought and critical thinking rather than credentialism and groupthink

anotherman554 4y ago
If Elon is mismanaging Twitter your post would be a good example of the cognitive bias called the Halo effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halo_effect
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  To say that somebody’s success at tasks that are highly correlated with a separate task is irrelevant is simply wrong. And people who tend to succeed at most things they do, tend to do so for a reason. It’s effectively statistically impossible for it to be sheer coincidence/luck. Or should I just pick random “logical fallacy” links to put in my replies instead?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - anotherman554 4y ago
    If a baseball teams wins their first four games and you see them in the seventh inning behind by 30 points in game 5, when you predict game 5's winner is the relevant correlation how the team did in games 1 to 4 or is the relevant correlation how a team who is that far behind a particular game tends to do? I simply noted you appear incapable of perceiving Elon as making bad decisions, which is kind of funny, since he seemed to think agreeing to buy Twitter was a bad decision, and was in the process of losing a court case about it before he saw the writing on the wall and closed the agreement. If he actually is making bad decisions, I think the halo effect is at play.
_zzaw 4y ago
The level of nastiness in your comments here makes it very hard to take you seriously as an "objective" observer. Considering that you're using your HN profile to attract clients—"Hire me for your development needs!"—you might want to tone that down. I wouldn't want to work with anyone who thought it was appropriate to behave that way. (And I'll say your rosy impression of Twitter seems a little strange for a supposedly objective observer, given the recent outages/pervasive legal problems/chaotic feature rollouts/various fits and reversals/overall dysfunction that has characterized that company since it was acquired by Elon Musk.)
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  Nothing nasty about my comment, its a factual response to the parent comment. Fortunately I couldn’t care less if somebody decides not to work with me because they disagree with my opinions. People who care about results will get ahead, those that don’t won’t
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    > ... small minded and intellectually weak detractors. ... Maybe use forethought and critical thinking ... > Nothing nasty about my comment, its a factual response to the parent comment. I called out your use of the word "obviously" without factual basis, and you responded with insults. Insults and praise for the CEO of Twitter, which is irrelevant, since he still has not made any statement whatsoever on the subject, which was entirely the point of my initial comment.
cmorgan31 4y ago
You just used an appeal to Elons other companies while telling others to not use credentialism?
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  Actions that drives results aren’t credentials, they’re evidence. Saying you have a degree in this or that, or title X/Y without having any results to show for it is credentialism. Unfortunately far too pervasive in our industry.
  - cmorgan31 4y ago
    Ah you don’t value the outputs the same so you want to allow appeals to authority as long as it’s shown profitable outcomes. I’m on the same page now.
    - adam_arthur 4y ago
      Yes, somebody building multiple of the world’s largest companies is a much higher hurdle than getting a degree or mid level manager job title. By your logic we can’t consider any accomplishments from somebody’s past as a reliable indicator of their future results. Which is obviously not true. “Credentialism” is giving far too much weight to low barrier to entry and easy to accomplish titles. Ignoring past results, the fact that Twitter is functioning fine after 80% layoffs has already validated the decision to downsize. No need to look to the past.
ReflectedImage 4y ago
"Elon who made Tesla and SpaceX some of the largest companies in the world in just a few years," What in earth are you talking about? He brought his way into those companies. I think you are confusing Elon Musk the fictional PR character who exists only in paid press releases with Elon Musk. Elon Musk's success was being the CEO of a slimy payment processor.
- sleepybrett 4y ago
  your forgot '... until he was shown the door.' on that last sentence.
pwinnski 4y ago
I didn't say he was an incompetent buffoon, you did. I think it's more true than not, but those are your words, not mine. I said only that he was frequently certain while being wrong. When he makes a pronouncement and then reverses that pronouncement, one or the other was incontrovertibly wrong. Whether he was wrong first and right later, or right first and wrong later, the list of reversals at twitter is a long one, starting before he bought the company. He tendered an offer that skipped due diligence, then attempted to avoid doing what he'd agree to do, invoking the due diligence he'd explicitly skipped in the process. Then they day before he would have to open up his financial records in court, he reversed his reversal and closed the deal. Since then he's stated multiple times he regrets buying twitter. However many times you count him being certain-but-wrong in that story, it's more than zero, despite the financial success of his unrelated companies, and despite your unwarranted personal insults.