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That seems unnecessarily dismissive, how many people said in 1942 that Germany would never succeed in invading France? As far as I am aware Japan doesn't have
by kneebonian 4y ago
That seems unnecessarily dismissive, how many people said in 1942 that Germany would never succeed in invading France?
As far as I am aware Japan doesn't have a particularly large standing military, and isn't that far away. Meanwhile the Chinese could, and probably would, be willing to drown the entire island in human wave tactics.
- Apocryphon 4y agoNaval invasions are inherently far more difficult than land invasions.
- amalgamated_inc 4y agoEspecially when you don't have a real navy.
- ianburrell 4y agoThe PLAN has gotten much better. They have started building a proper aircraft carrier. They have been building good destroyers. China has the second best navy in the world. The problem is that it isn't enough for amphibious invasion of Japan or Taiwan. They don't have enough amphibious ships. And the ships would be very vulnerable to anti-ship missiles. Truck-mounted anti-ship missiles, which Japan has a bunch and Taiwan should be buying, have changed things. The other thing that has made amphibious invasion infeasible are multiple rocket launchers, like HIMARS given to Ukraine, which can wipe out an entire beachhead.
- Apocryphon 4y agoThis prior comment, which is probably hyperbolic, always stuck with me: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946 > Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park. > I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard. > PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.
- amalgamated_inc 4y agoDon't forget 50 years of constant combat experience :) The last time China fought anyone it was us.. in Korea.. with M14s.
- Apocryphon 4y agoFor all of the invocations of Putin in this discussion, Russia already intervened in Ukraine less than a decade ago with their Little Green Men, and they were recently present in Syria. Never mind their invasion of Georgia and the Chechen Wars. Much more combat experience than the modern PLA.
- amalgamated_inc 4y agoYes, I think the PLA is a paper tiger.
- krapp 4y agoJapan's SDF is one of the most powerful "militaries" in the world, actually[0], should they decide to take the limiters off. [0]https://www.army-technology.com/features/japan-as-the-third-global-military-power/ https://www.army-technology.com/features/japan-as-the-third-...
- amalgamated_inc 4y agoNote to self: do not fight the Japanese if at all avoidable. Even when you beat them it's not fun.
- krapp 4y agoYes, that is one of the classic blunders. Related, never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
- amalgamated_inc 4y agoIf I had a penny for every time I made that mistake!
- ianburrell 4y agoOne thing to keep in mind is that Japan could easily develop nuclear weapons. They are banned by the constitution and unpopular with the people but that could change if US withdrew protection and were under threat from China. Japan has the largest stockpile of plutonium in the world.
- Turing_Machine 4y agoI've long believed that Japan, while technically not having any nuclear weapons, has the separate components on hand to assemble them within days if they so chose. Maybe hours.