4 ms·

They would not tried that without a driver. I think even Elon has that level of restraint and sense

by sidibe 4y ago

jefftk 4y ago
I wonder if we're disagreeing on what they thought the odds of an embarrassing incident were or whether those odds would have been acceptable to them? The video is 3:44, and I think doesn't have any bits cut out. I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice and giving it extra data they could have gotten down to about odds of somewhere around 1:10k. And I think they would have accepted those odds. (I would definitely not accept those odds, and would not want to ride in or near a car made by people who would. I'm glad that the law prevented them from doing runs without a safety driver at that stage. And I don't think they're anywhere near ready to do that today either.)
- sidibe 4y ago
  > I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice Why practice? They did the run until it worked well for the video. It wasn't a demo with a live non-Tesla audience. In this case not working 9/10 times is good enough rather than 1/10000
  - jefftk 4y ago
    They did practice, though? The odds I'm talking about are not "it doesn't work as well as the video" but instead "things go horribly wrong in a public way".
    - sidibe 4y ago
      There is no reason to think it was better than today's FSD even with those "crutches" (as I believe Elon himself refers to them when talking about other SDC companies), and the chance unsupervised FSD does something horribly wrong in a public way on real streets even in 3.4 miles is far higher than 10000:1 today. After all the car did hit a barrier during the making of this video. I doubt they spent much effort improving the odds when they had infinite takes.
      - jefftk 4y ago
        Looking around I see something like 6mi per disengagement [1] which, yes, is unacceptably high. The video is probably about 2mi, which naively would give 1:3. But disengagements have a large amount of precaution, so this isn't an accident rate. And some accidents wouldn't be ones they'd need to be public about, like the one in testing which only came out years later. [1] https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-awful-challenge-elon-musk-prove-otherwise/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-...

They would not tried that without a driver. I think even Elon has that level of restraint and sense

by sidibe 4y ago

They would not tried that without a driver. I think even Elon has that level of restraint and sense

I wonder if we're disagreeing on what they thought the odds of an embarrassing incident were or whether those odds would have been acceptable to them? The video is 3:44, and I think doesn't have any bits cut out. I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice and giving it extra data they could have gotten down to about odds of somewhere around 1:10k. And I think they would have accepted those odds. (I would definitely not accept those odds, and would not want to ride in or near a car made by people who would. I'm glad that the law prevented them from doing runs without a safety driver at that stage. And I don't think they're anywhere near ready to do that today either.)

sidibe 4y ago
> I'm guessing that after running the route many times for practice Why practice? They did the run until it worked well for the video. It wasn't a demo with a live non-Tesla audience. In this case not working 9/10 times is good enough rather than 1/10000
- jefftk 4y ago
  They did practice, though? The odds I'm talking about are not "it doesn't work as well as the video" but instead "things go horribly wrong in a public way".
  - sidibe 4y ago
    There is no reason to think it was better than today's FSD even with those "crutches" (as I believe Elon himself refers to them when talking about other SDC companies), and the chance unsupervised FSD does something horribly wrong in a public way on real streets even in 3.4 miles is far higher than 10000:1 today. After all the car did hit a barrier during the making of this video. I doubt they spent much effort improving the odds when they had infinite takes.
    - jefftk 4y ago
      Looking around I see something like 6mi per disengagement [1] which, yes, is unacceptably high. The video is probably about 2mi, which naively would give 1:3. But disengagements have a large amount of precaution, so this isn't an accident rate. And some accidents wouldn't be ones they'd need to be public about, like the one in testing which only came out years later. [1] https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-awful-challenge-elon-musk-prove-otherwise/ https://electrek.co/2022/12/14/tesla-full-self-driving-data-...