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The problem with that refutation is the direction it's been trending: Proportion of hospitalizations among the vaccinated has been going up while the percent o
by Izkata 4y ago
The problem with that refutation is the direction it's been trending: Proportion of hospitalizations among the vaccinated has been going up while the percent of the population that is vaccinated has pretty much been stable. We're not there yet but if the trend continues then this refutation won't work at all, and we're currently posting on a study that gives one mechanism that could cause this.
- acdha 4y agoThat’s a related but separate issue: what I was describing is the base rate fallacy, which is the most important concept for these comparisons, but it’s also important to remember that “vaccinated” isn’t a lifetime Boolean value even if people often treat it that way to simplify discussions. It’s not uncommon for immune response to wane over time (this is one reason why other vaccines need boosters over your life), and there are really two separate responses being talked about: do you have neutralizing antibodies ready to immediately stop the virus (likely with minimal symptoms and less spread), and do you have the memory T cells to prevent an infection from being worse? The former response tapers off relatively quickly compared to the latter, and is less effective as variants change the target. That means that people who have had vaccine doses a while ago are more likely to get a case than someone more recently vaccinated, and treating both of them the same will confuse your analysis.