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Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but
by nerdponx 4y ago
Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings.
I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but I remember seeing some data recently that contradicted this assertion. I would not be surprised if it were less evenly-distributed across the economy than prior generations.
I don't think we are going to see net outflow from the stock market, maybe just a decrease in inflow.
However I do think "worker shortages" will continue to grow as older people retire from undesirable jobs and aren't replaced by younger people, pushing up wages outside of white-collar and tech jobs and thereby leading to more inflation. I think this is a good thing in the long term and a price adjustment that has been a long time coming, but it needs to be managed properly or things could get really ugly.
- ajmurmann 4y ago"Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings." The problem is that the generationd after the boomers are smaller, especially in countries like Germany, China and Japan which have been economic power houses.
- tristor 4y ago> Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme, just like Social Security and pensions.
- nerdponx 4y agoDoes it? Is a lake with an inflow river and an outflow river a Ponzi lake?
- glogla 4y ago"Social pension system is a Ponzi scheme" is argument I've heard from people with certain political leaning often enough I wondered if Reagan or Thatcher said it or something. It never made sense to me. As long as the number of people is relatively stable, there's nothing Ponzi on it. Even with the number of people changing, there are other important inputs into the equation - automation, efficiency, etc.
- tristor 4y agoAll of these systems rely on working people to pay the tab for retired people because of demographic shifts and inflation causing outputs to exceed inputs. At least Social Security is definitely a Ponzi that per the SSA will only be able to guarantee me 65% of what I am owed when I hit the (continually increasing) payout age. I align with neither Reagan or Thatcher, but I did pass my math classes.
- nerdponx 4y agoBut it's not inherently a Ponzi scheme, it's just been mismanaged.
- glogla 4y agoIs taxes paying for education Ponzi scheme as well? If not, why is current workers paying future workers (now kids) education different from current workers paying past workers (now retirees) pensions?
- tristor 4y ago> why is current workers paying future workers (now kids) education different from current workers paying past workers (now retirees) pensions? Well for one thing, education scales with demographic shifts and pensions don't. If less people are being born, at a roughly similar cost/student (administrative bloat aside), educational costs go down as the population growth shrinks. Pensions on the other don't, they only go down on the other end (people dying) and reductions in the birth rate negatively impact the ability of successive generations to pay for prior generation's pensions. Education costs are also strictly bounded per person, as they aren't for life, only for K-12. I'm not trying to be coy, but it's pretty shocking to me there's multiple respondents that don't seem to understand that the basic premise of public pensions/social security are literally ponzi schemes that are unsustainable with demographic shifts. They utterly rely on continued economic and population growth in order to have enough inflows to meet their outflow obligations, which I would suggest is nearly identically equivalent to a ponzi scheme, where you are paying old investors with new investors money...
- tristor 4y agoAsk all the lakes that have shrunk or dried up because their outflows exceed their inflows.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]