7 ms·

"we saw our beloved parents struggle in old age with health and finance", This would vary from country to country but absolutely isn't the case in the UK. Most

"we saw our beloved parents struggle in old age with health and finance", This would vary from country to country but absolutely isn't the case in the UK. Most millennial's parents didn't have their income crippled by rent (with little chance of buying) and student loans (tuition fees only came in in the late 90s), and lived most their lives with a public health service that wasn't being aggressively gutted. If anything it'd be a resentment over how easy their parents had it. It's possibly a direct reaction to the global response to the banking crisis in 2008. We were told all these bailouts and austerity and artificially low interest rates were the way to solve things and while stock markets bounced back it never felt like a genuine recovery. The stock markets and bitcoin booming during the pandemic would've added fuel to the fire too. There'd be something somewhat comforting to see it all fall apart in a way that's undeniable and couldn't be patched over. Not a very rational response but it's understandable after the last 15 years (and the entirety of most their adult lives)

glogla 4y ago
Sure. Watching the world go to shit, watch everyone be worse off than their parents, watching billionaires play games with peoples lives and seeing everything getting worse while the markets are soaring ... of course that would make you think all the markets and money are not real and the world should burn. The COVID was a cherry on top, "we are in this all together," says the dude on his yacht, while you lost your job and place to live. Now the inflation will deepen inequality and poverty. I think the next crisis of this type, at least for US (and UK which is kind of similar), is going to be when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything. That might be another nail in the coffin of the world possibly getting better for them. In the Easter Europe, where I am, meanwhile, people are more nihilistic than ever. They were rescued from the Soviet command economies that worked badly, and there was a huge jump in living standards - in the 90s and early 2000s. But by now, the non-freedom of Real Socialism was replaced by non-freedom of being precariat that will never own even the commieblock apartment that people made fun of in the 90s - while all the wonderful inventions of the West like healthcare on for the rich and student loans get imported here. No wonder people are genuinely thinking watching the world burn in nuclear fire might be cool. The climate change that was the cost of luxury of previous generations will destroy humanity anyway, why not go out with a bang?
- ajmurmann 4y ago
  "when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything" I wonder if this one will be even worse in the US. Much of the market going up and up is because index funds have become the default retirement vehicle. So every month billions flow into the market no matter what. What will happen when the largest generation stops contributing and instead starts withdrawing. If you are right and many elderly will deplete their funds entirely, the value of everyone's retirement investments will drop dramatically in the process. How much of retirement nest eggs in places with terminal demographics like China, Germany and Japan are in international stocks as well? IMO demographics are gonna fuck over millennials yet again. I hope I'll be wrong.
  - nerdponx 4y ago
    Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but I remember seeing some data recently that contradicted this assertion. I would not be surprised if it were less evenly-distributed across the economy than prior generations. I don't think we are going to see net outflow from the stock market, maybe just a decrease in inflow. However I do think "worker shortages" will continue to grow as older people retire from undesirable jobs and aren't replaced by younger people, pushing up wages outside of white-collar and tech jobs and thereby leading to more inflation. I think this is a good thing in the long term and a price adjustment that has been a long time coming, but it needs to be managed properly or things could get really ugly.
    - ajmurmann 4y ago
      "Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings." The problem is that the generationd after the boomers are smaller, especially in countries like Germany, China and Japan which have been economic power houses.
    - tristor 4y ago
      > Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme, just like Social Security and pensions.
somedude895 4y ago
> We were told all these bailouts and austerity and artificially low interest rates were the way to solve things and while stock markets bounced back it never felt like a genuine recovery. Maybe it's because I'm not in the US, but do people actually feel this way? Sure, the GFC was a big deal at the time, but as a millennial, who grew up upper-middle-class and is now in his mid-thirties, I don't feel it has impacted me much at all.
- nerdponx 4y ago
  Absolutely. I felt this way at the time and I never stopped feeling this way. 2008-2020 always felt to me like an economic recovery for some (homeowners, investors, white-collar and tech workers), but stagnation or regression for others. > I don't feel it has impacted me much at all. Your post exemplifies exactly the problem I am describing.
- gergov 4y ago
  Below you, everyone felt it and felt it hard, everywhere.
  - TheHappyOddish 4y ago
    I've been staring at your comment trying to decide if it's intentional smugness or ignorance. I'm going to assume good faith. There were multiple countries with little to no impact from the GFC[1]. These countries include billions of people, and significant portions of the worlds GDP. Most western economies had recovered in 3-5 years[2]. Not everyone felt it and felt it hard, nor was this everywhere. I'm not arguing semantics, for billions of people it was effectively a non issue. 1. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/governance-and-global-crises/ https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/go... 2. https://bigeconomics.org/the-countries-most-and-least-affected-by-the-2008-financial-crisis/ https://bigeconomics.org/the-countries-most-and-least-affect...
Guid_NewGuid 4y ago
Yeah, certainly from a UK perspective that part of the GP didn't ring true. While my parent isn't one of the boomer generation that will be extremely well off and I personally worry for their retirement, across the generation in general I think they might have experienced the peak retirement experience. I personally don't think retirement as exists today will be a thing by the time I reach the same age. I haven't really looked much into the history so I could be way off base here. My impression is pensions, state provided and private, only really came into being post WW2. While the age distribution was able to support it there was something of a golden age for the older cohort of the boomer generation with final salary pension schemes, retirement at 50, etc. As the population pyramid continues to invert the pyramid scheme begins to collapse. Whatever the answer to old age ends up being I don't think it will be particularly recognizable relative to schemes today. Certainly there seems to be no answer to what happens when the next generation of retirees has no housing security or wealth, thanks to the growth of real estate speculation worldwide and rentier capitalism draining younger generations of all wealth. I often joke that my retirement plan is to rob a bank, either you get the money and run away to somewhere with no extradition, or you go to jail and get bed and board.
- TheFattestNinja 4y ago
  To tie into the original post, we joke that our retirement plan is a good backpack for the post-apocalypse wasteland (you get to choose your flavor between war, climate, or many others) trekking, so I like your scenario better.

glogla 4y ago

Sure. Watching the world go to shit, watch everyone be worse off than their parents, watching billionaires play games with peoples lives and seeing everything getting worse while the markets are soaring ... of course that would make you think all the markets and money are not real and the world should burn. The COVID was a cherry on top, "we are in this all together," says the dude on his yacht, while you lost your job and place to live. Now the inflation will deepen inequality and poverty. I think the next crisis of this type, at least for US (and UK which is kind of similar), is going to be when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything. That might be another nail in the coffin of the world possibly getting better for them. In the Easter Europe, where I am, meanwhile, people are more nihilistic than ever. They were rescued from the Soviet command economies that worked badly, and there was a huge jump in living standards - in the 90s and early 2000s. But by now, the non-freedom of Real Socialism was replaced by non-freedom of being precariat that will never own even the commieblock apartment that people made fun of in the 90s - while all the wonderful inventions of the West like healthcare on for the rich and student loans get imported here. No wonder people are genuinely thinking watching the world burn in nuclear fire might be cool. The climate change that was the cost of luxury of previous generations will destroy humanity anyway, why not go out with a bang?

ajmurmann 4y ago
"when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything" I wonder if this one will be even worse in the US. Much of the market going up and up is because index funds have become the default retirement vehicle. So every month billions flow into the market no matter what. What will happen when the largest generation stops contributing and instead starts withdrawing. If you are right and many elderly will deplete their funds entirely, the value of everyone's retirement investments will drop dramatically in the process. How much of retirement nest eggs in places with terminal demographics like China, Germany and Japan are in international stocks as well? IMO demographics are gonna fuck over millennials yet again. I hope I'll be wrong.
- nerdponx 4y ago
  Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but I remember seeing some data recently that contradicted this assertion. I would not be surprised if it were less evenly-distributed across the economy than prior generations. I don't think we are going to see net outflow from the stock market, maybe just a decrease in inflow. However I do think "worker shortages" will continue to grow as older people retire from undesirable jobs and aren't replaced by younger people, pushing up wages outside of white-collar and tech jobs and thereby leading to more inflation. I think this is a good thing in the long term and a price adjustment that has been a long time coming, but it needs to be managed properly or things could get really ugly.
  - ajmurmann 4y ago
    "Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings." The problem is that the generationd after the boomers are smaller, especially in countries like Germany, China and Japan which have been economic power houses.
  - tristor 4y ago
    > Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme, just like Social Security and pensions.

somedude895 4y ago

> We were told all these bailouts and austerity and artificially low interest rates were the way to solve things and while stock markets bounced back it never felt like a genuine recovery. Maybe it's because I'm not in the US, but do people actually feel this way? Sure, the GFC was a big deal at the time, but as a millennial, who grew up upper-middle-class and is now in his mid-thirties, I don't feel it has impacted me much at all.

nerdponx 4y ago
Absolutely. I felt this way at the time and I never stopped feeling this way. 2008-2020 always felt to me like an economic recovery for some (homeowners, investors, white-collar and tech workers), but stagnation or regression for others. > I don't feel it has impacted me much at all. Your post exemplifies exactly the problem I am describing.
gergov 4y ago
Below you, everyone felt it and felt it hard, everywhere.
- TheHappyOddish 4y ago
  I've been staring at your comment trying to decide if it's intentional smugness or ignorance. I'm going to assume good faith. There were multiple countries with little to no impact from the GFC[1]. These countries include billions of people, and significant portions of the worlds GDP. Most western economies had recovered in 3-5 years[2]. Not everyone felt it and felt it hard, nor was this everywhere. I'm not arguing semantics, for billions of people it was effectively a non issue. 1. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/governance-and-global-crises/ https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/go... 2. https://bigeconomics.org/the-countries-most-and-least-affected-by-the-2008-financial-crisis/ https://bigeconomics.org/the-countries-most-and-least-affect...

Guid_NewGuid 4y ago

Yeah, certainly from a UK perspective that part of the GP didn't ring true. While my parent isn't one of the boomer generation that will be extremely well off and I personally worry for their retirement, across the generation in general I think they might have experienced the peak retirement experience. I personally don't think retirement as exists today will be a thing by the time I reach the same age. I haven't really looked much into the history so I could be way off base here. My impression is pensions, state provided and private, only really came into being post WW2. While the age distribution was able to support it there was something of a golden age for the older cohort of the boomer generation with final salary pension schemes, retirement at 50, etc. As the population pyramid continues to invert the pyramid scheme begins to collapse. Whatever the answer to old age ends up being I don't think it will be particularly recognizable relative to schemes today. Certainly there seems to be no answer to what happens when the next generation of retirees has no housing security or wealth, thanks to the growth of real estate speculation worldwide and rentier capitalism draining younger generations of all wealth. I often joke that my retirement plan is to rob a bank, either you get the money and run away to somewhere with no extradition, or you go to jail and get bed and board.

TheFattestNinja 4y ago
To tie into the original post, we joke that our retirement plan is a good backpack for the post-apocalypse wasteland (you get to choose your flavor between war, climate, or many others) trekking, so I like your scenario better.