4 ms·

The best part about exponential curves: By the time the battery needs to be replaced batteries will be 90% cheaper.

by yazaddaruvala 4y ago

almost_usual 4y ago
This seems very optimistic.
- yazaddaruvala 4y ago
  That is my preferred outlook yes :) But it is backed by the data. Check out my other responses. If you’re either “realistic” or pessimistic, what about the data and trends we already have doesn’t convince you of a giant cost reduction over the decade to produce batteries?
endisneigh 4y ago
there's no way that will be true, lol
- yazaddaruvala 4y ago
  This is the trend, backed by all the data and the expectation of the industry. Why do you think otherwise? https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/experience-curve/ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/e... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects If you’re familiar with Moores Law, that is an example of an experience curve.
  - endisneigh 4y ago
    I’m familiar with the trend, but it’s unlikely the price of electric batteries would decrease an additional 90% in 20 years
    - yazaddaruvala 4y ago
      “unlikely” based on what? Your narrative is counter to the industry’s expectations of itself. Your narrative is counter to the research and science already showcased in labs. So I just want to understand your perspective better. What sources are you using to justify “unlikely”, or are you using intuition? Keep in mind exponential curves are very hard for humans to grasp and even harder for humans to believe, but the super majority of the time those curves hold for many decades.
lm28469 4y ago
You can be sure the invisible hand of the free market will take care of that, and also of the "it's 4x cheaper to charge an EV than fill an ICE vehicle tank"
- yazaddaruvala 4y ago
  The technology is just too distributed already for any of that to happen. Cost of charging an EV is bounded by the ability to add solar panels to your house (currently solar installations “pay for themselves” in 7 years in Seattle - not so sunny - high cost of labor location). The grid and “free market” have to be able to compete with that for cost. Batteries like solar panels are very cheap to transport. They are flat, they can easily stack, there is no expiration period, and no temperature regulation needed to transport them. Batteries will be produced globally if the local markets start gouging. Solar panels are already a great example of this cost reduction curve. So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data.
  - lm28469 4y ago
    You'll need a shit load of solar panels to charge a 60kw+ EV regularly, and a shit ton of sun. A lot of people don't own/live in a house in Europe, let alone a house with enough land for a proper solar installation If it was that easy every single house would already be self sufficient in electricity, if you can half charge a 60kw EV battery every day you could easily run everything in your house I'm 100% pro solar but I think people just don't understand the numbers here, with my _yearly_ electricity consumption I can only charge a 75kwh tesla battery 25 times, that's once every 2 weeks. > So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data. Filling am EV at a public charger in Paris already costs more than filling your gas tank. https://www.frandroid.com/produits-android/automobile/voitures-electriques/1577454_charger-une-tesla-a-paris-coutera-desormais-deux-fois-plus-cher-quun-plein-dessence https://www.frandroid.com/produits-android/automobile/voitur... I'm telling, people who want to make money won't change overnight. Of course that's different than trickle charging your EV in your garage but a lot of people 1 don't own a garage, 2 won't have the proper installation for a quick charge and won't have that any time soon. I know lots of people here are 100$k+ tech worker living in fancy and sunny places but the reality is that the vast majority of people can't even afford an EV right now, let alone a 20$K+ solar instal for the house they don't even have yet.
nebula8804 4y ago
we'll see about that. It does not seem to be true for the Leaf batteries. These early 24kwh models have replacement batteries costing like 11-12k. Based on the rapid depreciation of the car's value(how many people want a car that can only go 80ish miles?) that battery pack price makes it a non starter for many people. I am looking forward to third parties hopefully releasing their own packs. How would you warranty and insure them though? Also forget about third party packs for Tesla. They have so much integration that I doubt you'll see anything other than replacement packs from Tesla.

The best part about exponential curves: By the time the battery needs to be replaced batteries will be 90% cheaper.

almost_usual 4y ago

This seems very optimistic.

yazaddaruvala 4y ago
That is my preferred outlook yes :) But it is backed by the data. Check out my other responses. If you’re either “realistic” or pessimistic, what about the data and trends we already have doesn’t convince you of a giant cost reduction over the decade to produce batteries?

endisneigh 4y ago

there's no way that will be true, lol

yazaddaruvala 4y ago
This is the trend, backed by all the data and the expectation of the industry. Why do you think otherwise? https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/experience-curve/ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/e... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects If you’re familiar with Moores Law, that is an example of an experience curve.
- endisneigh 4y ago
  I’m familiar with the trend, but it’s unlikely the price of electric batteries would decrease an additional 90% in 20 years
  - yazaddaruvala 4y ago
    “unlikely” based on what? Your narrative is counter to the industry’s expectations of itself. Your narrative is counter to the research and science already showcased in labs. So I just want to understand your perspective better. What sources are you using to justify “unlikely”, or are you using intuition? Keep in mind exponential curves are very hard for humans to grasp and even harder for humans to believe, but the super majority of the time those curves hold for many decades.

lm28469 4y ago

You can be sure the invisible hand of the free market will take care of that, and also of the "it's 4x cheaper to charge an EV than fill an ICE vehicle tank"

yazaddaruvala 4y ago
The technology is just too distributed already for any of that to happen. Cost of charging an EV is bounded by the ability to add solar panels to your house (currently solar installations “pay for themselves” in 7 years in Seattle - not so sunny - high cost of labor location). The grid and “free market” have to be able to compete with that for cost. Batteries like solar panels are very cheap to transport. They are flat, they can easily stack, there is no expiration period, and no temperature regulation needed to transport them. Batteries will be produced globally if the local markets start gouging. Solar panels are already a great example of this cost reduction curve. So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data.
- lm28469 4y ago
  You'll need a shit load of solar panels to charge a 60kw+ EV regularly, and a shit ton of sun. A lot of people don't own/live in a house in Europe, let alone a house with enough land for a proper solar installation If it was that easy every single house would already be self sufficient in electricity, if you can half charge a 60kw EV battery every day you could easily run everything in your house I'm 100% pro solar but I think people just don't understand the numbers here, with my _yearly_ electricity consumption I can only charge a 75kwh tesla battery 25 times, that's once every 2 weeks. > So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data. Filling am EV at a public charger in Paris already costs more than filling your gas tank. https://www.frandroid.com/produits-android/automobile/voitures-electriques/1577454_charger-une-tesla-a-paris-coutera-desormais-deux-fois-plus-cher-quun-plein-dessence https://www.frandroid.com/produits-android/automobile/voitur... I'm telling, people who want to make money won't change overnight. Of course that's different than trickle charging your EV in your garage but a lot of people 1 don't own a garage, 2 won't have the proper installation for a quick charge and won't have that any time soon. I know lots of people here are 100$k+ tech worker living in fancy and sunny places but the reality is that the vast majority of people can't even afford an EV right now, let alone a 20$K+ solar instal for the house they don't even have yet.

nebula8804 4y ago

we'll see about that. It does not seem to be true for the Leaf batteries. These early 24kwh models have replacement batteries costing like 11-12k. Based on the rapid depreciation of the car's value(how many people want a car that can only go 80ish miles?) that battery pack price makes it a non starter for many people. I am looking forward to third parties hopefully releasing their own packs. How would you warranty and insure them though? Also forget about third party packs for Tesla. They have so much integration that I doubt you'll see anything other than replacement packs from Tesla.