These are not mutually exclusive - oftentimes the collapse is the impetus that creates a new market void that spurs development of new models. The problem is t

These are not mutually exclusive - oftentimes the collapse is the impetus that creates a new market void that spurs development of new models. The problem is that you usually need the collapse before the new models can start development, because a.) it illuminates all the problems with the old system and b.) it makes switching over to the new system a matter of necessity. Humanity is very bad about pre-emptively identifying risks and avoiding them - witness our response to global warming, both world wars, falls of empires, carcinogens, peak oil, the housing crisis, the health care crisis, and so on. Problem is that until a crisis is actually upon people, it's not urgent, which means that everybody has an incentive to focus their attention on things that actually are urgent. A fair number of people may not even agree that a crisis is imminent, or what to do about it, or they may have vested interests in the old system and resist any new change.