Yes to the first question! The distribution representing my beliefs in such a scenario would not have a finite variance. Given the question, are you aware of

Yes to the first question! The distribution representing my beliefs in such a scenario would not have a finite variance. Given the question, are you aware of the Pareto distribution? Nassim Taleb has great work explaining fat-tail distributions. (I do have strong priors on various things, such as the size of the human population and the sizes of large prisons, which I ignore here as they break the metaphore)