4 ms·

Moore's Law for Everything (2021)

22 points by steventey 4y ago

haffi112 4y ago
Governments that implement these type of policies might see a rapid rise in their GPD. If it works out, I assume others would follow. But what country would be the first one to take the leap?
looseyesterday 4y ago
Sadly I dont see many rich world governments discussing this serious or planning. If covid is any guide things will have to get worse / bad before they are addressed.
trabant00 4y ago
> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. It's been 10 years since IBM Watson commercially promised the same thing right then and there. And arguably failed. I don't see what changed in these 10 years apart from more systems like that being available to more people. But the capabilities seem in the same ballpark, meaning computer programs don't actually think nor are they even remotely accurate enough for legal or medical advice.
- keithalewis 4y ago
  Bingo. We can currently spot machine generated nonsense. The next generation will be trained to make nonsense more plausible. Ultimately it will be beyond the ability of feeble human branes to distinguish BS from truth. I predict a huge success in applying this technology to politics and "news" shows.
  - bcrl 4y ago
    Meanwhile, the externality of the damage cheap disinformation causes to society won't be paid by the creators of this technology. I fear that computer scientists don't have the necessary training in and understanding of ethics and social sciences to comprehence the consequences their creations are having on other people and society as a whole.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dredmorbius 4y ago
Discussed at the time (534 comments): <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26480981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26480981>
hef19898 4y ago
>> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions. And in the decades after that, they will do almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries that will expand our concept of “everything.” Great, I totally believe that. Well, the document reading and advice bit. But will it be valuable or even good advice? Because every rando on the internet can do just that right now. And COVID showed us the results. If anything, we will get more, and more convincing, spam and scam, proudly powered by AI. But then, we talk about someone who wanted to use magic orbs to scan poor peoples biometrics on a global scale by promising get-rich-quick crypto. EDIT: I think a better title would be "Sam Altman's content marketing blog post on how he thinks Moore's law applies to his current start-up".

22 points by steventey 4y ago

Governments that implement these type of policies might see a rapid rise in their GPD. If it works out, I assume others would follow. But what country would be the first one to take the leap?

looseyesterday 4y ago

Sadly I dont see many rich world governments discussing this serious or planning. If covid is any guide things will have to get worse / bad before they are addressed.

trabant00 4y ago

> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. It's been 10 years since IBM Watson commercially promised the same thing right then and there. And arguably failed. I don't see what changed in these 10 years apart from more systems like that being available to more people. But the capabilities seem in the same ballpark, meaning computer programs don't actually think nor are they even remotely accurate enough for legal or medical advice.

keithalewis 4y ago
Bingo. We can currently spot machine generated nonsense. The next generation will be trained to make nonsense more plausible. Ultimately it will be beyond the ability of feeble human branes to distinguish BS from truth. I predict a huge success in applying this technology to politics and "news" shows.
- bcrl 4y ago
  Meanwhile, the externality of the damage cheap disinformation causes to society won't be paid by the creators of this technology. I fear that computer scientists don't have the necessary training in and understanding of ethics and social sciences to comprehence the consequences their creations are having on other people and society as a whole.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

dredmorbius 4y ago

Discussed at the time (534 comments): <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26480981 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26480981>

hef19898 4y ago

>> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions. And in the decades after that, they will do almost everything, including making new scientific discoveries that will expand our concept of “everything.” Great, I totally believe that. Well, the document reading and advice bit. But will it be valuable or even good advice? Because every rando on the internet can do just that right now. And COVID showed us the results. If anything, we will get more, and more convincing, spam and scam, proudly powered by AI. But then, we talk about someone who wanted to use magic orbs to scan poor peoples biometrics on a global scale by promising get-rich-quick crypto. EDIT: I think a better title would be "Sam Altman's content marketing blog post on how he thinks Moore's law applies to his current start-up".