4 ms·
A "posterior probability for p" for a Bernoulli distribution is meaningless because it's equivalent to a single Bernoulli distribution.
by lalaland1125 4y ago
A "posterior probability for p" for a Bernoulli distribution is meaningless because it's equivalent to a single Bernoulli distribution.
- steppi 4y agoIf one only had such an estimate for a single example, this would be true, but in aggregate over many predictions, the uncertainty bands can useful for decision making. This is an active area of research.
- contravariant 4y agoIt's meaningful in the sense that what the model produces is often not the posterior probability. See my other comment for more detail.